NBA Finals: Heat Do the Zag and Force Game 7

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

I have more faith in the zig zag theory than most hokey superstitious.

A couple of weeks ago I charted out a potential path to victory for the San Antonio Spurs that followed the zig zag. Based on the overwhelming fact that the Heat never lose two games in a row, the Spurs would have to alternate wins starting with Game 1 and win all the odd-numbered games... Game 3, Game 5, and Game 7.

Thus far, the NBA Finals has been following that exact path.

When Game 5 ended in San Antonio with a Spurs victory, everyone (fans, sportswriters, bookies, and wiseguys) assumed the Heat would win Game 6 in Miami, which would set up a coinflip for Game 7. The Heat never lost two in a row.  Bettors exploited that stat for ginormous paydays in the playoffs. Everyone and their mother was betting the Heat in Game 6.

It was time for the Zag.

On Tuesday morning, the NBA announced on the zebra assignments. Joey Crawford's crew got the nod. Who didn't see that coming?

If you believe in NBA conspiracy theories, then the Junta comprised of David Stern and Walt Disney's unfrozen head dispatched their henchman Joey Crawford to ensure a Miami Heat victory in Game 6, thereby forcing a seventh game. Big ratings for NBA. Mega advertising revenue. The media continues the hype cycle for 2 more days. A Game 7 is essentially printing more money. Everyone wins.

If anyone had any doubt about the Heat winning Game 6, the appointing of Joey Crawford put them to rest.

Even renown bookmaker Chris Andrews tweet'd: "Joey Crawford reffing the Spurs-Heat game 6 tonight. I guess we'll have a game 7."

I've written extensively about Joey Crawford in the past (e.g. The Unbearable Likeness of Joey Crawford). Joey Crawford is a hot head. Everyone knows that. He's broken fingers giving Ts after losing his mind. He loves confrontations. He's the type of dickhead who takes up extra space in the overhead compartment. He strikes me as the type of guy who stiffs cabbies and leaves a 10% tip at restaurants. He ritually sacrifices kittens for the Illuminati, and on his off days he flies phantom cargo planes that spray Chemtrails on the populous.

Joey Crawford is a "Yes Man" and a loyal henchman. That's why he appears in must-win games that are beneficial for the business interests of the NBA Junta. Like the Umbrella Man standing in front of the Grassy Knoll on the day JFK was whacked, Joey Crawford's absurd appearance seems like too much of a coincidence.

Tim Duncan is not one of those paranoid pro athletes who thinks The Man is out to get him, which is surprising that he made public statements about Joey Crawford's well-known vendetta against him. Crawford got suspended for threatening to fight Duncan, but Grantland deconstructed the accusations that Crawford tries to fix Spurs' games. According to the numbers, there's no statistical evidence that suggests the Spurs lose more often when Crawford is reffing.

Okay, so Crawford is not out to cook Duncan's goose, but he has an obvious bias toward Miami -- the Heat won seven out of the last 8 games he reffed.

Game 6 did not start out with the same uptempo pace of Game 5, but it looked like it would be in the 90s. Spurs got ahead in the 1Q, but the Heat pulled away in 2Q. The Spurs stayed close behind Duncan's offensive outburst. Duncan dropped many points as possible in the first half just in case Crawford rang him up with a bogus tech, or if he got into foul trouble. Duncan erupted for 25 first-half-points (setting a personal NBA Finals Record). The bookies set prop bets for Duncan's point total in Game 6 at 18 total points. Duncan crushed the over mid-way through the 2Q.

The Heat went butt cold and failed to score in the last 4:20 in the half. Spurs regained lead and went on a 11-0 tear to close out the half. Heat couldn't do anything on offense and the Spurs extended their edge to a 6-point halftime.

Miami dominated early in the 3Q and pulled within 1 point, but that was the closest they'd get before the Spurs rattled off a 11-0 run and took a commanding 12-point lead.

Miami came out firing in the 4Q and quickly chipped away at the lead. They pulled within 2 possessions after Miller drilled a trey while missing one sneaker.

The Heat's D shut down Danny Green. Even the rare times he got off shots, he was way off. LBJ woke up from a slumber. The Heat stormed back and seized the lead with 6 minutes to go. Brand new ball game.

Tony Parker hit a couple of big shots in crunch time. Meanwhile, Lebron made a few bad plays and made me wonder if he's shaving points. But then again, Lebron hit a big trey with 20 seconds to go.

Up two, Kawhi Leonard missed a crucial free throw, which was the Spurs best chance to clinch a win in regulation.

Down by three, on the final possession, Lebron bricked another jumper with seven seconds to go, but Bosh snagged the rebound and kicked it over to Ray Allen, who drilled a corner trey to tie the game with 0:05 to go. Tony Parker got mauled on a thwarted last second shot and Game 6 went into OT.

Joe Crawford wasn't really much of a factor this game, but he made a couple of close calls in OT that went the Heat's way. I was more surprised at how bad Lebron looked at times. He got off to a smoking hot 4Q, but then choked down the stretch in crucial situations.

The Spurs went cold in the second half of OT. Leonard scored their only two buckets. Down by 1, Ginobli got hacked. Zebras went blind and swallowed their whistles. Allen got fouled and hit both to put the Heat up by three. Green whiffed on a chance to send the game into double OT. Heat held on to win 103-100 (but failed to cover). Say hello to Game 7.

The Heat avoided an elimination. The zig zag theory held true. If it continues, the Spurs should win Game 7. But, can they win an elimination game in Miami? Or will the Heat shake free of the zig zag and win back-to-back eliminations games and continue their reign as NBA Champions?

Gonna be a crazy Thursday night in Miami. Bookies opened the line at Miami -6.


Pauly is the author of Lost Vegas: The Redneck Riviera, Existentialist Conversations with Strippers, and the World Series of Poker.

A's Weekly Digest: The Literal and Figurative Shit Storm

By Joe Speaker
Los Angeles, CA

After beating the shit out of the Mariners at home last Sunday, the A's retired to their locker room for a long, soothing shower before boarding a plane to Texas for a four game series against the Rangers. They had hardly begun to lather, however, when the plumbing at aging O.Co Coliseum balked at the repeated flushes of 37,000 beer-addled fans and spewed shit up from the drains, causing both A's and M's to flee screaming into the "safe" confines of the Raiders locker room to finish giving their undercarriages a bit of the 'how's your father.'

This is big news to some, but A's employees basically shrugged their shoulders. While rivers of sewage is not the norm, the decrepit Coliseum has battled plumbing issues for years. "Today this is national news, but it happens here all the time," said A's GM Billy Beane.

So there's one to add to the list. The Coliseum is:

1. The only facility in the country that houses both professional baseball and football teams
2. Forty-seven years old, third-oldest stadium in baseball behind Fenway and Wrigley
3.  Located in an industrial part of Oakland without any amenities (nightclubs restaurants) nearby
4. The site of many a stolen car sterero
5. The first place I smelled marijuana

And now, a facility that is always one flush away from becoming a Haz Mat site.

The A's, of course, have long coveted a new stadium. The idea, however, has been stuck in a Bud Selig-induced form of limbo for quite some time now. The Commish's vaunted Blue Ribbon Committee, which is (allegedly) studying ways for the A's to move or get a new park, has been in a state of suspended constipation for more than four years. Four years! In the last four years, I've acquired a wife, a kid, a dog and a cat. I had to find a new place to live in a different city. And I paid for it myself! It wasn't that hard! Yet, this panel somehow can't figure out the dollar amount A's owners John Fisher and Lew Wolff will hand over the the Robber Barons..er...Giants so they can commence building a feces-free stadium in San Jose.

In the 48 hours since this incident, some San Jose politicos have decided they're not going to take Selig's shit any longer. The city filed an antitrust lawsuit against MLB today. While this angle of attack has obviously been in the works for a while, perhaps the city is banking on riding a brown wave of support due to the Coliseum overflowing its banks. The suit accuses MLB of unlawful and "blatant conspiracy" to control the movement of the A's. The odds of the suit succeeding (ie ending baseball's long-treasured antitrust exemption) are zero, but that's probably not the goal here. The suit will look to shine a harsher light on MLB's foot-dragging on the issue and force Selig's hand. If there's one thing Selig hates more than a modern haircut, it's bad publicity. San Jose wants to force an expedited decision, one way or another.



Hopefully, before the bowels of the Coliseum overflow with crap again.

Bronx Bums: 6/16 Report - Bad Trip on the West Coast and Swept By the A's

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

The Yanks got knocked down in California

Twenty years ago, if a Yankees skipper lost five games in a row, he'd be on the hot seat and prepared to get whacked because the ornery Boss would rather fire him on the spot than suffer the humiliation of a week-long losing streak

The Boss has been dead for sometime, and his kinder and gentler offspring do not run the Yankees organization like a hotheaded tyrant.That meant Joe Girardi, ensconced in a five-game losing streak, did not have to win Sunday's game against the Angels to save his job.

The Yankees had hit the skids in California after losing five straight. They saved face to win the last game of a grueling 10-game roadtrip and finished 4-6 on this run. They luckily did not lose too much ground on the first place Red Sox (40-29). The Yanks trail by three games but the way they played this week, they're fortunate to still be in the chase pack.

The Yankees (38-31) kicked off the West Coast swing with a dominating series in Seattle. They won three out of four games including a close shave against King Felix. The Yanks arrived in Oakland on an upswing, but were brutally swept by the A's, capped off by a nasty loss in an 18-inning marathon game to close out the series. The Yanks limped into SoCal hoping to bounce back against a struggling Angels squad. Alas, the Yanks out-stunk the Angels when they failed to hit once again. They dropped the first two games and pushed their losing mark to five games. CC stopped the bleeding on Father's Day and the Yanks departed California with just one win in the last week.

The Yanks faced a big test playing Oakland in Oakland. JoeSpeaker reminded me that the A's had the best record in baseball over the last 162 games, while the Yanks were surprisingly second.

The Yanks were down 6-1 in game one, but a late rally came up short and they lost 6-4. That's the most runs in a game they'd score all series. They barely put up a fight in the second game and lost 5-2.

The last game in Oakland was a "getaway" day game that went 18 innings. Kuroda pitched well enough to win (2 hits over 8 innings and only 2 ERs), yet the offense floundered once again. The game went into extra innings and the bats continued to stay silent (Tex, Youk, Bubba Wells, and Haffner went hitless in 28 at bats and they combined for 12 strikeouts). Long-man Adam Warren stepped up and he tossed six immaculate innings in relief, scattering four hits. Warren threw a season-high 85 pitches and eventually ran out of the gas. Girardi had a tough choice at the bottom of the 18th inning. He was down to three relievers: Mo Rivera, Preston Caliborne, and Joba Chamberlin. Girardi (and all of Yankees nation) lost faith in Joba, who has been in the doghouse ever since his spat with Mo Rivera in KC last month. Girardi opted for Claiborne, who got into a quick jam. Girardi had no choice but to call on Mo to put out the fire. Alas, Mo did not pitch well and the A's won the game in the bottom of the 18th. Heartbreaker. That 3-2 loss was the longest Yanks game in a decade. The Yanks had a chance to save face and leave Oakland on a high note, but they got swept.

The Yanks headed down the coast to take on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Two more ugly games. The bats went silent again. Then again if you looked at the lineup Girardi put out there, almost half the team started the season in the minors. Seriously, who the hell is Thomas Neal? Or Reid Brignac?

On Sunday, the dormant offense finally woke up against Weaver, who pitched a rare bad outing against the Yanks. Haffner connected on breaking ball that didn't break. If this game was at Yankee Stadium, that shot is probably an warning track out in left-center Death Valley. Alas, in Anaheim... it's a 3-run home run. That blast put the Yanks ahead. They were up 6-0 in the ninth, but CC/Roberston/Mo almost blew it. They avoid disaster and held on to a 6-5 win. Another close call.

The Yanks looked good at the start of the road trip but their lack of power hitting continues to be a huge issue. They only scored 30 runs on the road trip Easy math... the Yanks averaged 3 runs a game, but they gave up 3.7 runs a game. They Yanks pitching staff has been above average all season, but their offense woes seem to be getting worse and worse. Cano hasn't been driving in runs. Bubba Wells is ice cold. Youk had a bad back. Tex had not contributed anything at the plate since his return from the DL, and he left Saturday's game with a wrist injury.

On Deck: The Yanks have Monday off before action resumes in the Bronx for a 9-game homestand. They open up with a 2-game series against the last-place L.A. Dodgers (this is their first trip to the Stadium since interleague began). Then over the weekend, they host a four-game series against Tampa (36-33).

This week's pitching match-up...

vs. L.A. Dodgers
6/18 Ryu vs. Hughes
6/19 Capuano vs Kuroda

vs. Tampa Bay
6/20 Moore vs Pettitte
6/21 ???? vs Phelps
6/22 Hernandez vs CC
6/23 Archer vs Hughes

Pauly is the author of Lost Vegas: The Redneck Riviera, Existentialist Conversations with Strippers, and the World Series of Poker.

MMA: UFC 161 Preview

By StB
Milwaukee, WI

UFC 161 comes from Manitoba, Canada this Saturday, eh?

The card is interesting. Intriguing maybe. Just not really exciting.

The Main Event is Rashard Evans taking on Dan Henderson. Both fighters had their last match in February. Rashard lost to a Nog (I think it was the Big), while Henderson lost a split decision to Lyoto Machida. Now, the two battle to see who still matters in the light heavyweight division.

Hendo has been around forever. Back in 1997, he made his UFC debut at UFC 17. Since then, he has fought for Pride and Strikeforce. It seems weird to see him back in the Octagon. He went to Strikeforce after he couldn’t get the money he wanted from the UFC. But, mergers do strange things and Hendo steps back in the Octagon once again.

Evans is a UFC veteran whose career started on the Ultimate Fighter. This will be his 15th fight in the UFC. He has beaten some of the best to enter the cage with victories over Tito Ortiz, Chuck Liddell, and Rampage Jackson.

Can Evans be a giant killer again and add Henderson to this list of the great fighters he defeated?

Also on the main card is Roy Nelson taking on Stipe Miocic. Nelson is UFC President Dana White’s whipping boy. Every time Nelson wins, it seems to piss off White. Nelson is not your prototypical fighter.

Look at that doughboy.

He tends to land heavy shots and then lay on you when you are on the mat. Most fighters can’t get from underneath him when it happens, so it can be a long boring fight unless Nelson is able to pound them out.

His opponent Miocic looks like another fighter from Russia. Though he idolizes Mirco Cro Cop, he is actually from Ohio. Coming off a loss to Stefan Struve, he needs a win to keep his UFC career alive. Lose and he’ll likely be relegated to Facebook or Fuel TV fights until his contract runs out. Win and who knows? Dana may be so happy he’ll give him a title shot.

Another heavyweight battle has Pat Barry taking on Shawn Jordan. Barry is an emotional fighter who has dedicated his life to MMA. Jordan is a hard hitter. This is the proverbial "I’ll be surprised if this fight goes the distance" fight.

Sam Stout and Jake Shields are on the undercard. They seem to have fallen far.

Hopefully, there'll be some big surprises out of UFC 161. With a boring UFC on Fuel TV this past Saturday, they need some exciting to come out of Canada.

Stanley Cup Final Preview: Blackhawks v. Bruins

By Joe Speaker
Los Angeles, CA

The boss asked me to provide some hockey predictions so here goes:

With just under $12 million in cap space for next season, the Kings won't re-sign unrestricted free agents Rob Scuderi or Dustin Penner. They will need to hold onto Slava Voynov and Jake Muzzin, both RFAs, and probably one of Trevor Lewis and Kyle Clifford. Backup goalie Jonathan Bernier will probably be traded for help on the left wing and...

What? The Stanley Cup Who? You want me to talk about hockey teams other than the Kings? Get my lawyer on the phone.

Fine. Stanley Cup Finals! Chicago! Boston! Blackhawks! Bruins! Hockey! NHL! Original Six! Best trophy in Sports! (I had to do all that for SEO reasons.)



I like to poke fun at my West Coast hockey bias, but I should point out that I did have the 'Hawks inthe Final, beating my beloved Kings, so I am nothing if not freaking awesome at the prediction game. Yes, I had the Rangers coming out of the East, which, don't laugh, might have totally happened had the Maple Leafs managed to hold a three-goal third period lead or if John Tortorella had a Magic Baby. Alas, he does not and they did not and that tiny butterfly flap affected the whole hockey universe, primarily by loosening the choke chain around the neck of the Bruins and turning them into a 20-man Wrecking Crew for the better part of a month.

The Blackhawks also started rather slowly, with an unimpressive first round win over an extremely unimpressive Minnesota club and then sleep-walking/crying like babies through the first four against a fired-up Red Wings team. They flipped the switch in time to storm back to win threee straight and carried that momentum into the Conference Final where they out-classed the Kings in five.

/pours one out for my homies

So what to make of the two finalists? It's difficult to handicap the match-up due to the simple fact the Eastern and Western conferences didn't play each other in this lockout-shortened year. My ability to compare and contrast is seriously compromised. How can I predict anything without seeing how both did against Winnipeg!?!?!

Both teams were in Juggernaut Mode in their respective conference finals, but I also have this nagging suspicion they didn't face the best the Kings and Pens had to offer. Are these teams who they appear to be now? Or the ones that nearly tripped into the off-season just a few short weeks ago?

*

The case for Chicago starts with their speed. These guys go from zero to 60 quicker than Patrick Kane accepts your invitation to buy him a shot. Along with that speed comes a fair bit of skill combined with self-confidence that manifests itself prominently in their breakouts. The Kings vaunted forecheck could never get going because the Blackhawks got to the puck first and then deftly moved it right out of their own zone. The ability to counter a "heavier" game, one played by both the Kings and Bruins should contribute to the 'Hawks having more possession.

Chicago also blocks a metric shit-ton of shots. If I took a shot for every shot they blocked against the Kings, I'd be in intensive care somewhere trying to stop my wife from divorcing me. The Kings weren't able to get a great deal of traffic in front of Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford, but, even when they did, the puck rarely got to the front of the net. The Bruins' ability to get traffic is one of their best assets, so Chicago will need to continue sacrificing their bodies.

Seabrook and Keith: Seven-Deuce Suited

On the offensive end, Kane decided to show up for the Conference Final after being MIA earlier in the post-season. His hat-trick in Game 5 was an exclamation point and you know what they say about scorers and what happens when they are playing with confidence (they score; duh). Brian Bickell has also filled the net, using his big body to create space and jam in pucks. What a battle we're going to see with him and Bruins defensman Zdeno Chara jousting in front of the crease. Is there somewhere in Vegas we can wager on the pints of blood spilled?

*

On the Boston side of the ledger, they've simply dismantled their last two opponents. They've gotten healthy on defense and holding the Penguins to two goals in four games is just silly. Chara and Dennis Seidenberg form a formidable pair and rookie Torey Krug has been a revelation. Not to mention Johnny Boychuck has like 100 goals in the playoffs (fact check: 5). In fact, Bruins defensemen have accounted for 15 goals this post-season, nearly one per game.

The Bs are playing at a high level, rolling four effective lines, spreading the scoring around and generally making things easy for Tukka Rask. While their forwards might not be equal to Chicago's on talent alone, they certainly compare as far as results. David Krejci (21 playoff points) has been unstoppable and linemates Nathan Horton and Milan Lucic provide some physicality and sandpaper.


Patrice Bergeron will have the task of shadowing Jonathan Toews and will be looking to get into the Blackhawks captain's head, much like Henrik Zetterberg did for the Red Wings in their conference semifinal. Toews seems a little off and you know Bergeron will use his...er....personality...to try to frustrate him. And then when Bergeron gets tired or gets whacked in the face with a stick by Duncan Keith, Brad Marchand can take over the job of annoying the shit out of Toews.


In goal, I think Rask gets a slight nod over Crawford, who was solid against the Kings, but wasn't called on too often to make a huge save, as the defending champs a) didn't shoot much and b) kept hitting him right in the sternum. Rask, on the other hand, is toting that gaudy .985 save pct. against Pittsburgh around with him. He should be at the top of his game.


I picked Chicago to win it all prior to the playoffs and I'm going to stick with that, even though I had them beating the Rangers, who don't even have a coach any longer, so that was a dumb pick. I don't see much to separate the two teams, so home ice will have to be the difference as the Blackhawks have only lost once at home so far. Should be a fantastic series with both teams playing at an optimal level.

Chicago in 7.