05 November 2012

Election 2012 Betting: Obama 2.0

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

I trust Nate Silver. He's a baseball stat geek first and political forecaster second. As a sports bettor, you want to have as much statistical information to back up your pick, which is why stat geeks are your best friends. Most of the donk-bettors out there are betting blindly on their "favorite teams" (Go Knicks!) or betting against those they hate (e.g. Fuck Duke!). A lot of bets are made using unquantifiable intangibles a.k.a. "picking with your gut" while others more sinister make decisions based upon inside information that something is not on the level.


Me? I'm betting on inside information. The election is rigged. All hail Obama 2.0!

I've been saying national politics is not on the level for years. Screaming into the void. I don't care if you think I'm crazy because as weird as you think I am... I think you're 1000x weirder for not realizing the entire system is rigged. Too much money (trillions) is at stake and on the line to let the Honey Boo Boo-drooling public to decide the fate of America, Inc.

This election is theatre. Really bad theatre. It's more like a poorly scripted reality show starring politicians. Vanilla-laced drivel. Reminds me of that old saying... "We get the candidates what we deserve."

Obama is going to win his re-election bid as CEO of America, Inc. Why? Because he's the "Yes Man" that the oligarchs and corporations pulling the puppet string want to prop up in front of the cameras. Obama is a song and dance man with a crooked used-car salesmen smile. He gets up in front of the cameras and sells the bullshit while secretly shilling for the Banksters. Bush II did it for 8 years. His old man did it for 4. Slick Willy did it for 8 but he was neck deep in litigation over the Lewinsky hummer scandal because he went off script and tried to pull a fast one over the puppet masters. It's like Bill Hicks explained... on the first day in office, someone in a dark suit shows the President a rerun of the JFK assassination in Dallas. Comply to our wishes, or have your head explode like Gallagher punching a watermelon.

Obama will continue to be CEO of America, Inc. Say hello to four more years of financial irresponsibility and more shredding of the Constitution!

Okay, now that we have the "election is rigged" rant out of the way, you probably still don't think the election is a farce, nor it is rigged. That's cool. Because I want to introduce you to someone who is on your page and thinks the election is real... and that it matters. His name is Nate Silver. He writes for the New York Times and makes his predictions on the election using skills and models he perfected while building up massive data bases for professional baseball. You know that Moneyball movie with Brad Pitt and Fat Jonah Hill? Well, Nate Silver is like the Fat Jonah Hill stat-driven geek in the flick. He crunches numbers. It's what he does.

I trust Nate Silver's prediction. Obama has a 86.3% chance of winning (note that number is Obama's chance to win, not his numbers of the popular vote which some illiterate "journalists" confused). As a sports bettor and gambler I want to have the most up-to-date information at my finger tips. Nate's projections are the most accurate intel I've found. Nate Silver's projections fall in line with what most of the bookies think, and I'm not talking about Nine-and-a-half-fingered Vinny who takes a few nickel bets at the corner pub in the Bronx. I'm talking about the corporate-owned super books in the Caribbean and Europe. The big offshore books have Obama listed as an overwhelming favorite and Romney as a huge underdog (a.k.a Mittens the dog). Heck on Sunday, Paddy Power (the largest bookie in Europe) agreed to pay out all bets on Obama.

The bookies' odds reflect an Obama victory. Yet, if you turn on the alphabet news networks, you hear a whole other story. Then there's the slew of attacks on Nate Silver and his data. Sure, I understand why the talking heads must follow the script and say it's a close election. A blowout prediction deters people from voting, it hinders last-minute campaign contributions, and it could jeopardize multi-million dollar ad buys for local TV and radio stations (especially in swing states).

I don't agree with all the unnecessary vitriol and childish hate directed at Nate Silver from both sides of the political spectrum. However, I understand the underlying forces that fueled the backlash from the MSM political pundits and the in-crowd inside the Beltway. Nate Silver's stats prove that most of the political pundits and talking heads are 1) out-of-touch with modern statistical analysis, and more importantly 2) full of shit. Nate Silver's numbers exposed the lot of them as hustlers, shysters, and a lonely step above carnival barker.

Let's get to the point... they hate Nate Silver because his research and analysis threaten their livelihood. His highly-accurate stats screw up a nice little scam they got going. But instead of discrediting the numbers or calling Nate Silver a "fag", those anti-Nate Silver pundits should have the balls and come out to speak the truth that they were once revered gods now exposed as fakes: "Listen up stat geek! Keep your nerd numbers to yourself. We have an awesome racket going and living high off the hog! And you're fucking it up, so please go back to entertaining other fantasy baseball losers by figuring out WAR and WHIPs on left-handed relief pitchers on Tuesday day games facing right-handed batters with names that start with the letter D. Go back to baseball and leave the political stuff alone to the 'professionals' like us. The sheeple think all of CNN's political coverage is alchemy. Let them keep thinking that!"
Okay... you're not here to hear me rant about politics and conspiracy. That's what Tao of Fear is for. You're hear to get a quick tip on betting on the election. Let's get to it....

I trust Nate Silver. So do the bookies. They list Obama -300 and Romney +250. None of us trust any of those talking heads on the boob tube. Anyway, based on Nate Silver's numbers at FiveThirtyEight, I'm going to remind you of a few state bets that are worth making:
Colorado: Obama -125... Colorado has marijuana legalization up for grabs. Every pothead, ski bum, dope-toking liberal, and wook will descend from all over the Rockies and cast their vote for WEED. While they're at it, they'll probably vote a third-party candidate like Gary Johnson or Roseanne Barr. But if they vote for an establishment pick, it will be Obama over Romney. Legalize it and vote for Barry O!

Virginia: Obama -125... Virginia is light blue on Nate Silver's map. Looks more like a shade of "Carolina" blue. All signs indicate Obama will win a close one... but win nonetheless.

Florida: Obama +180... Florida is a tale of three mini-states: NoFla rednecks, SoFla East-coast transplants, and Neo-Americans from Cuba/Haiti. The east coasters are split (a little red and little blue which makes purple) while most of the NoFla is all red. The big question mark are the first-generation Cubans/Haitians. Most of them will vote for Obama, but how many of them will go out and vote? Nate Silver's intel suggests Obama wins Ohio and coughs up Florida to Romney. However, there's some value in putting a bet on Obama +180 as a long shot only because Romney -240 does not have a lock. In March Madness college hoops terms, this is like a #10 seed (Obama) playing a #7 seed (Romney).

Wisconsin: Romney +290... It would be embarrassing if Romney did not win Wisconsin because his VP running mate Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin. However, Wisconsin is a big union state and those unions love Obama. Then again, Wisconsin's governor won on a Tea Party platform. Nate Silver projects Obama to win Wisconsin, but you can't count out the Ryan "local boy" factor. I doubt Romney wins, but out of all the blue-leaning Midwest states, Wisconsin is the prime for a Romney come-from-behind upset. In March Madness terms, Romney is a #12 seed and Obama is a #5. One of them is going to get picked off, but which one?
So, if you want some free money, jump on Obama to win Colorado -125 and Virginia -125. If you want to really gamble it up, bet on Obama +180 in Florida and Romney +290 in Wisconsin.

Yes, even though the Washington Redskins and RG3 lost on Sunday (according to the Redskins Rule, it accurately predicted the Presidential race 17 out of 18 times), Obama will still win.... even our contact in the CIA confirms an Obama victory. Meanwhile, Nate Silver's numbers project an Obama re-election and the numbers continue to rise.

Pass the bong, Barry O! All hail, Obama 2.0.