06 November 2012

Post-Election Mittens Blues and Knicks 3-0

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

The only way to get my jaded-vet ass to get enthusiastic about an election... is to bet on it. I tuned out all of the election hype, crapola shitshow the last few months (er.... years). I have an uncanny ability to generate a shield so whenever a political ad comes on, it gets repelled. When I scan tweets, all the political stuff gets magically blurred out. When people argue politics in front of me they sound like Charlie Brown's friggin' teacher.


Who woulda thought a little action on an election would get me fired up to watch cable news for hours on end? So why did I all of sudden decide to get involved emotionally and financially? A ginormous bet on Obama took root after a funny conversation I had with Jesse May (on the Everything Is Bettable podcast). I told him the election was rigged and the outcome was predetermined so it wasn't worth betting and he sort of gave me that "Hello, Noonan!!" response.

"Dude, Pauly... what the fuck, mate? I'm more interested in games that are rigged if I can figure out what side to be on. Lets bet a shit ton of money on Obama with every bookie we know in a dozen countries."

A slew of professional bettors in the U.K. and Europe sifted through the talking heads' static and wanted to make a decision based om raw data. They felt more comfortable with Nate Silver's statistical analysis on why Obama had the best chances to win. Even poker pro Daniel Negreanu had $1 million riding on Obama. Almost $100 million was wagered at the big betting shops in Europe, where one unnamed Russian oil baron dropped a ton of coin on Obama.

We loaded up on Obama -250 to get re-elected and I loved Obama -125 Colorado so I went a little crazy with Colorado wagers. I had a small bet on Virginia -125 and Florida +180. I almost pulled the trigger on Romney in Wisconsin, but glad I didn't.

It took all night for the (scripted) drama to unfold. The ice rink at Rockefeller Plaza was turned into a gigantic map of the USA. When the network was ready to call a state for Obama or Romney, a couple of min-wage chumps with a spray cans colored in a states with its appropriate color... red or blue. One by one, the states were painted exactly as Nate Silver projected.

When the dust finally settled just before Midnight ET, and the networks finally bilked every last dollar of advertising revenue, they made the call everyone was waiting for... Obama won the electoral vote while the popular vote was neck and neck. Florida was still undecided and Romney was unwilling to concede while hilarity ensued when Karl Rove, 36-hours deep into a coke-fueled bender, prattled off stats like Rainman involving random voting numbers in rural Ohio, most of which were some of the poorest counties areas in America where "meth" is a noun, verb, adjective, religion, and philosophy all rolled into one. Man, if there was an election once a week, I'd watch FOX News more often.

Of course, the states we happened to bet on were among the last to be called. Obama and WEED legalization prevailed in Colorado when both were called shortly after Midnight ET. Oh Sweet Virginia finally got painted in blue and we were 2 for 2 in state bets, with Florida still up for grabs. Florida is one of the most corrupt states in the union, but that's a post for another time.

Obama hasn't done jack shit for sports bettors and online poker players. So it was finally about time we made some money off him. Pass the bong and all hail Barry O 2.0!

Monday. We had a rough Monday Night Football. We hoped for the best out of Michael Vick and the Eagles... but they couldn't beat the worst defense in the NFL! Shit, when you can't score on the lowly Saints, you know you have problems. The Saints beat the crap out of Vick, who took yet another pounding. In the end, we wanted lots of offense and our OVER 52 bet fell short of the mark. I deserve to lose that for betting on Vick. Man... Andy Ried and Michael Vick are dead men walking.

Monday NBA action: Knicks +4.5 and Golden State +2. We went 1-0-1.

Knicks won and covered Shocker eh! An hour or so after the Knicks beat the Sixers at MSG on Sunday, the bookies set the line at +4.5 for their next match-up on Monday in a "home-and-home series." Yeah, the Knicks were taking on the Sixers in back-to-back games. The Knicks defense looked strong and their offense was flowing freely. Simply put... the Knicks dominated them in their first meeting, and even though the game was in Philly, we were betting them no matter what in the second game (up to -3). We were shocked to see them a dog! Knicks opened at +4.5 offshore, We jumped on the overnight line. When I went to bed, the line had moved to +4. When I woke up on Monday morning, the line moved all the way to +2.5. Gotta bet those overnight lines if you think the line will move in your favor!

Anyway, the Knicks blew out the Sixers on consecutive nights. They improved to 3-0 and hadn't gotten off to a hot start like this in years! The Knicks are a better offensive team without Amare clogging up the paint and getting Melo out of his rhythm. Felton played well and the J.R. Smith/Novak tandem can light it up at any given time. Heck, even Rasheed Wallace was getting quality minutes and I'm not talking about garbage time in the 4Q.  Knicks looked like legit playoff contenders. Never thought they'd be 3-0 and beat the Heat while the Lakers would start the season 0-3.


Golden State pushed against Sacramento. Golden State lost by 2 and we had them at +2. In that instance, a push is like a win because Golden State should have lost by 10. Sacramento blew a lead and almost let Golden State in the back door. Those fuckers slammed it shut on my fingers. I wanted to go 2-0... but got denied!

Tuesday NBA... Election Night betting. The best trend I found involved the crappy Detroit Pistons. Detroit was 5-0 in games they played on Election Day. The streak went back to 1980! Detroit was almost a double digit dog in Denver. I almost pulled the trigger on Denver, but got gunshy. HAL420 predicted an UNDER, but we ignored him! The total went over and Denver easily covered. That streak was broken.

We liked Oklahoma City -8.5. I purposely bet on at least one NBA so I had something else to watch instead of the election. But my girlfriend flipped back and forth through several news stations, so I sweated the OKC/TorRapters game on my laptop. Oklahoma City looked like a gift at -8.5. HAL420 projected a double digit victory, even though ToRaptors looked good in the first week of the season with Kyle Lowry as their obvious MVP. But it's tough to beat OKC in OKC. Lowry got off to a slow start and then went down with an ankle sprain. He left the game and never returned. OKC cruised and won by 20.

That win pushed us to 12-8-1 in the NBA this season. Nothing at all to brag about, but at least we're no longer going 1-1 every day!

We've been on a roll since Saturday's Oregon game. Heck, if you toss in the baseball playoffs, we've been on a heater. The Obama bets were clutch and now we can forget about silly politics and focus on the second half of the NFL season and the new NBA season.