03 November 2012

The Howl of a Saturday Night Duck

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

Lolo Jones, the virgin bobsledder, sat in on College Game Day and picked her former school LSU to upset #1 ranked Bama. Old Man Corso put on an elephant's head and cued Sweet Home Alabama. He taunted the crowd while they emphatically booed his pick. One of these days, Corso is going to get lynched by a violent crowd of moonshine-soused rednecks, or have his face eaten off by schwasted shirtless bros delirious on bath salts.


Earlier in the week, for shits and giggles, a Vegas bookie set a fictitious line that Sweet Home Roll Tide Bama would be a +24 dog against the worst NFL team (Browns, Jags, et al). In real life, Bama was a 9-point favorite in the swamp at LSU.

Shocked to see LSU up 17-14 late in the 4th quarter. Stunned actually because LSU's offense is suspect and Bama's D is supposed to be the best in the country. Bama didn't flinch and scored on a final drive that silenced everyone in the muggy Death Valley darkness. Bama won 21-17. Old Man Corso and his elephant head correctly predicted the victor.

By the way, more over Nate Silver... the winner of LSU-Bama is an uncanny predictor for the Presidential race. During election years... if Bama beat LSU, then a Democrat won. But if LSU beat Bama, then a Republican would occupy the White House. Well, all of you Obamabots should be thrilled became Bama won this year, which means 4 more years of Barry O! Not even all the Mormons in Utah praying for a LSU victory could help Romney.

Didn't bet that game... but I had a bet on Barry O!

I vowed to bet fewer games this weekend across the board -- college, NFL, and NBA. But that didn't happened. We already had Oregon -6 when the line opened and put a little more down at -7, and I couldn't walk away from HAL420's pick of the day UNDER 71 in Baylor/Kansas (when Baylor's OVER was like 5-1 this year).

For reasons unknown... a few minutes before kickoff, I tailed a wiseguy pick with Mississippi State +7 against Texas A&M and that was a terrible decision which rained dogshit on my sunny Saturday morning. What a better way to start the day than in the hole? Impulse bets are my downfall.

Good news... that was the only bad spot in college football. It was all rainbows and unicorns the rest of the day. The Baylor/Kansas game was on pace to hit the under by one point at halftime, but luck for me, the game was delayed because of lightning strikes. Yes, an act of God kill Baylor's momentum... and when play resumed, Kansas didn't score another point while Baylor struggled to only score 3 TDs. Final was 41-14 and the UNDER came in for only the second time this year.

Oregon was a tough sweat. It was one of those moments when you peer over the edge of the abyss and squint your eyes to try to recognize anything in the darkness... hoping to find a sign of life and reassurance that you made the wise decision. Oregon was the largest wager I ever made on a single college football game. It was also the biggest sports bet I made in a year and a half (not counting trading commodities and betting on silver futures).

I watched the Oregon-USC game mostly in silence. My insides were churning and I tried to remain as cool as a 1957 John Coltrane solo. I tried to be still... be calm... be that "grace under fire" that Hemingway wrote about. I wanted to run around in circles, but I held everything back. I never told my girlfriend how much I bet, although she was suspicious because I was eerily quiet... too quiet for her tastes.

Last Sunday night, I told a few friends to jump on Oregon -6 when the lines opened and before any of the lines jumped a point or more. Glad they listened to me. I even fired a second bet when the line moved to -7.

The game. L.A.'s dilapidated coliseum. A sea of maroon and gold almost 95,000 strong. USC's faithful fans fell silent when Oregon scored in the first minute of the 1Q and the sprint was on. I could tell which of my neighbors were USC alums because whenever USC scored, a muffled cheer echoed through the alley. USC to their credit, held their own and never backed down, but every time they got close, Oregon responded with a TD.

In the end... Oregon prevailed 62-51... and covered all wagers. I dunno why we didn't bet the OVER. 113 points? Redonkulous.

I could finally breathe again. I never told my girlfriend the exact amount but she knows better not to ask.

After the Oregon windfall... I'm retiring from college football betting because I don't want to give any of it back! Walk away. Yes, my gut tells me to shut down Ocelot's college football operation and walk away with a nifty profit, which I would use some to donate to Hurricane Sandy relief in NYC, plus put aside a chunk toward Phish summer tour 2013. Walk away. Walk away. Walk. Away. After that stupendous Oregon win... I'm done with betting on college football for 2012. Walk away.

You know what that means, right? I'm betting five college games the next three weekends.


It Saturday Night Dogs in the NBA. How did the dogs do? Two of them won outright (Portland +5.5 and Golden State +8.5) while they went 6-4 overall. Three out of 10 games had dogs at +6 or lower... and all three of those lower dogs covered (Washington +6, Cavs +6, and Portland +5.5).

We started with three plays and ended up with four: UNDER 202 DEN/MIA, Dallas -9.5, Milwookie -6, and Golden State +8.5.

Fade the Bobkittens. We got burned last night when Charlotte Bobkittens scratched and clawed their way to a one point win against Indiana. We must  get our money back so we faded Bobkittens again. They flew to Dallas to play on back-to-back nights. We got on Dallas at -9.5 and bet twice as much as the night before. It wasn't even close. Dallas mauled the Bobkittens and won by 27. Thus far, fading the Bobkittens is 1-1.

Milwookie -6 played at home against the lowly Cavs.  But those damn Cavs decided to finally earn their paychecks. They were winning in the second half but blew the lead. Milwookie won but didn't cover. Bastards.

We fucked up with UNDER 202 in Denver/Miami when the sharp play shoulda been Denver +9. Both teams were playing back-to-back... Miami got drubbed by the Knicks in NYC then flew back to Miami, and although Denver played in Orlando last night, they had a short trip to Miami. As much as I liked Denver the dog +9, I was afraid Miami wanted revenge. We listened to HAL420 and went with the UNDER  because it was a situation in which both teams are playing back-to-back. The theory goes tired teams score fewer points. What happened? The first half looked like a pick up game on West 4th Street.... nonstop shooting and zero defense. Second half was almost the same. Final score 119-116. Yes, the UNDER shit the bed because HAL420 was snorting Ketamine again and must've fell into a K-hole. I should listened to my gut and took Denver and the points.

We were 1-2 in the NBA, so we jumped on Golden State +8.5 as the "I gotta get unstuck" game mostly because they were playing the Clippers and the game was on local TV. Golden State was up most of the game but they blew a 14 point lead in the 4Q sparked by Jamal Crawford and CP3. Clippers came close... but lost by four. I blame Vinny Del Negro. Golden State won outright and covered for the second time this season for us.

Whenever mid-level West Coast teams like Golden State, Portland, and Phoenix are playing at home, majority of the action on those late games are blind bets from broke-dick punters who are trying to get unstuck after getting their asses handed to them during the 7pm ET games.

Too bad there was not an NBA team Maui or Anchorage (like the Alaska Polar Bears or the Hawaii Volcanoes), so degenerates like yours truly could have one last chance to get bailed out.

We finished the day 2-2 in the NBA (8-7 overall), but who cares. This Saturday belonged to Oregon. Those Ducks hooked us up.