04 November 2012

The Redskins Rule

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

I was cognizant of the Redskins Rule before I made picks in my pool, but I wasn't willing to bet on Redskins/Obama. Actually HAL420 predicted a Carolina Panthers upset... which made the Romney Mormon Army have a glimmer of hope as they burned stuffed Nate Silver dummies in effigy.

If you don't know, the Redskins Rule accurately predicted 17 out of 18 Presidential elections since 1940. The only time it did not hod up? 2004 Bush/Kerry.Doesn't matter. Obama wins. The fix is in. Plus the largest sportsbook in Europe a.k.a. Paddy Power is paying out all wagers on Obama. Sure, it's a publicity stunt, but those Irish bookies are almost always on the "right side of the fix."

I have a bet on Barry O, but not the Redskins. The biggest play in the first half happened on a 4th and Goal and the score 7-3. Instead of a pussy-ass FG, the Skins went for it... but credit Carolina's goal line D. They stopped RG3 in his tracks and turned the ball over on down. At halftime, the Skins were down 14-3. The mounted a weak comeback... but fell short. RG3 got outplayed by Cam Newton and the Skins lost.

Did Carolina just cost the election for Obama? All signs indicate an easy Barry O victory on Tuesday, so looks like the Redskins Rule might have yet another exception... 17 out of 19 still ain't too shabby, however, only 1 out of the last 3 elections is not what I call a good forecaster. Nate Silver would not be impressed.

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The wisdom of the Ocelot suggested less is more. We went with just two bets: Detroit -3.5 and OVER 47 Buffalo/Houston. We liked the OVER in Cleveland/Baltimore but we couldn't find a good number (we liked 42 or 43, it was 44 everywhere) and passed. We got lucky in that instance. Usually whenever I get shut out of a bet (like forgetting about the start of the Knicks-Sixers game), the bet I wanted to make always comes in.

We bet on Detroit -3.5 early in the week. You gotta bet those early lines because they offer up tremendous value, especially when the line jumps a full friggin' field goal. When I woke up on Halloween, Detroit was  -3.5. When I woke up on Sunday, the line had moved all the way to -7. Holy shitballs! Everyone was betting Detroit. The public. The wiseguys. Every mush, mook, and broke-dick sleeping in their car in the parking lots of racetracks scraped together enough pocket change for a min bet. Money from the farthest corners of the planet was coming down hard on Detroit. Kids from remote villages in the Amazon were walking hundreds of miles to the closest town that had a bookie so they could put their life savings on Detroit.

Detroit won. Easily. The Jags were... the same old pathetic Jags.

We shit the bed with OVER in Houston/Buffalo. All of sudden both defense woke up and decided to play hard. It wasn't even the end of the 1Q and I was looking for a bail out bet... and liked the UNDER 47 in Atlanta/Dallas. Tony Romo is a turnover machine and Atlanta is vastly overrated at 7-0. They should be 5-2 but it was time for fate to catch up with them.

Sitting at 1-1, we pulled the trigger on the UNDER 47.5 Dallas/Atlanta. The game was in Atlanta, where Matty Ice has a sick record as QB. The public was all over Atlanta, but most of the sharps were predominately on Dallas +4. I didn't have to worry about who was going to win by how much... I just wanted a low scoring game and got it. Missed FGs are your best friend when you bet the under.

Atlanta held onto to win 19-13 and covered, but more importantly, they secured the UNDER. Dallas sinks to 3-5 while Atlanta squeezes out yet another win by the skin of their balls. Atlanta stays undefeated at 8-0.

We finished the day 2-1 in the NFL. Slight profit. No complaints. Best part of the day was not really involved with sports betting, rather with a rare breakout performance from Tampa's rookie RB Doug Martin, who was the darling of fantasy football this week earning over 250 yards rushing and 4 TDs and a few stiff arms along the way in a win against the Oakland Thugs. D-Mart put up a whopping 51 points for my team Split Open & Melt. Sick. So sick. D-Martin is the fucking man. If I even meet him, I'll hook him up with a fatty blunt of NoCal's finest herbs in the shire.

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NBA. I missed the start of the Knicks game and forgot NBA tip offs at noon (or 9am PT) on weekends. I snoozed and lost out on some free money. The Knicks manhandled the Sixers so bad that even Rasheed Wallace got some playing time. The Knicks also proved they are a much better team without Amare.

We shit the bed with Minnesota +3 in Toronto. The TorRapters came to play... and Minnesota looked like a bunch of chumpstains with lumps of dung in their jocks. TorRapters shot very well from the floor. Glad we bet the OVER too because that bailed us out and evened it up for the day.

Going into the last game... I couldn't resist a little taste on the Lakers game. They were 0-3 and facing a craptacular Detroit squad. Lakers were without Steve Nash so the UNDER 190.5 looked enticing. Even HAL420 liked the UNDER. I didn't feel confident in the Lakers -9... but then again they were due for a win and big night. Guess what? The Lakers dominated and opened up a 36 point lead in the 3Q. The Lakers' Princeton offense meshed well and they were playing too well for my tastes, putting the total in jeopardy. I needed both teams to shoot horribly in the 4Q caped off by missed free throws. With garbage time blowouts, you never know what you're going to get.

Lakers won 108-79 and ended a 3-game skid. I was sweating like a whore in church for the last 2 minutes of that game. Shit, the last 1.5 quarters were all garbage time and I had to sweat an over-eager Lakers second unit looking to chuck treys and put on a show for the celebrity crowd. Garbage time has killed many a gamblers soul. Not this time!

We finished 1-2 in the NBA (10-8 since season started)... and 2-1 for the NFL.

Thus concluded another long-ass Sunday that began at sunrise and lasted well into the evening. Crazy crazy crazy weekend... super profitable all because of Oregon. The rest of the weekend was graaaaaavy. Can't wait to do it again.