01 December 2012

Over 88, Helicopter Ben, and Hillary's Ice Box

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

Busy Saturday. The last weekend of college football. NBA in full action not to mention a slew of college basketball games.
Saturday Sweat
College Hoops: Cleveland State -4
NBA: Dallas -7, Memphis +6.5, Brooklyn +8.5, OKC -8, GS -4
College Football: UNDER 88 Baylor/OK State and OVER 56.5 BSU/Nevada
We were disciplined and only played one college game, split a pair of college football games, but then got sloppy with too many NBA games. somehow, we ended up with a profit on a busy Saturday. How busy? I barely had time to sweat all the games. I know, I know... what's the point of betting on a game if you can't watch it?

College Hoops

We've been cherry picking the schedule after the crazy opening day marathon. I haven't had the time to devote my waking hours to college hoops but I've been good at cherry picking games. Last night we jumped on USF -3.5 and they beat up UGA by 11.

This time the bus drove by and we got on the Cleveland State bandwagon, a team that I had backed the last couple of years because of their hidden value. Cleveland State beat Toledo by 5 when we were laying -4. Sick cover. I was writing a work assignment and didn't get to see any of it (I don't even think it was televised), but that second half would have drove me nuts hanging on every free throw like my life depended on it. Most of the time I enjoy betting for the head rush and the gut-wrenching sweat. But other times, I love making a wager then forgetting about the game. You eventually remember you had an open position and then you're heart starts to pound and your palms get sweaty while you're waiting for ESPN's score page to fully load.

College Football

88! Are you shitting me? There was going to be so much scoring in this game that the bookies set a line on the Baylor/Oklahoma that was the largest total in the history of sports betting and bookmaking. 88? Seriously? We bet the UNDER on principle. We were 6-0 this year on Baylor totals (and we successfully bet them under once). Baylor can score on one play (they did it seven times prior to today) but their defense is full of holes and they can give up points on any possession.

Could both teams score 40? Hell yes. How about 50? Maybe. We opted for the UNDER because all it takes is one defensive stop and a couple of field goals to throw an over out of whack. With 88... you need 13 TDs combined or 12 TDs and 2 FGs.

The 1Q score gave me a headache. The scoring slowed down substantially in the 2Q and the 3Q, however, they scored 21 quick points in the 4Q to put the game at 41-34. The worst thing that could happen would be a tied score at 41-41 and the game heading into OT. College-version of overtime can destroy your soul and those UNDER bets. With less than 90 seconds to go, Oklahoma State scored then attempted an onside kick, but Baylor recovered. They went into a victory formation and took a knee. Whew. The game stayed at 75 points.

BTW, those kids at Baylor must get access to some good blow being a border state with Mexico and everything. They looked pretty jacked up here...

image

Yeah, that kid in the white jacket looks a little light in the loafers, if you know what I mean.

We had one other total... Nevada/Boise State. Those WAC games used to be high-octane 50-40 affairs that you currently see in the Big 12. HAL420 spit out an OVER and we went for it.

It was 17-0 at the half and I was ready to tear up the ticket. It was 24-14 late in the game and if Nevada could score a TD and FG, they could force an OT. With 48 points heading into overtime, we could backdoor a cover of 56.5. Alas, Nevada failed to score and BSU ate up a ton of clock as they took a 27-14 lead with a FG. With under 4:20 to play, Nevada marched down the field and scored a TD. The score was 27-21 with 2:27 on the clock. The total was 48... and we still needed a miracle. Nevada failed to recover an onside kick. They got the ball back one last time with 17 seconds left. I needed a TD and a failed XP to force an OT for a shot at covering.

We were 2-0 overall going into that game, but finally lost our first bet of the day. We also dropped to 1-1 in college football totals.

I'm thrilled college football is over. Thrilled. Fuckin' thrilled! Since nailing that mönsterbetten on Oregon, we're 7-15. We shipped another mönsterbetten during that horrid down swing, but even that juicy win could not make up for the black hole of suck over the last few weeks. I shoulda listened to my gut and shut everything down after the Oregon win. I got greedy. Couldn't get that damn monkey off my back. Pissed away all that profit on Oregon.

On a positive note... our bread and butter was picking totals. Although we started out smoking hot at 11-2 on totals over a month ago, we finished up 14-8. Alas, the degen took over and we started pressing and went sour with a 2-6 run since that epic high-water mark.
College Football Overall: 26-24
We're up 5 BBs for the year, but got as high as 10 BBs after the Oregon mönsterbetten, but as I predicted in The Howl of a Saturday Night Duck, it was all downhill afterwards. Glad the rolelrcoaster ride is over. We bought a ticket, took the ride, and came out ahead. That's a bloody miracle. College football has always been my weakest sport. Glad glad glad I'm alive... I'm glad glad glad that I survived the season and squeezed out a profit. Can't wait to focus on my real passion... college hoops. Soon come!

NBA

We started with a trio of games and kept an eye on Memphis before jumping on them, then freaking out after the Nets fell into a black hole, so we made a call to the Wolf and got Golden State as our bailout game. Turned out we didn't need it, but it ended up a delicious cherry on the top of a pile of money.

Brooklyn got off to a sizzling start in Miami. The down and dirty Nets were up 14 early on and made LBJ look like he was Eddie Jones, until disaster struck in the second half. The Miami Heat heated up and the Brooklyn Nets went ice cold. Cold. Cold. Cold. Cold. Cold. They were more frigid than Hillary Clinton's dormant vagina. Yeah, H.C.'s ice box is hella frozen, and that's how atrociously bad Brooklyn shot during a horrendous stretch. It got so cold on their end of the court, icicles were hanging from the rim and the Miami Heat cheerleaders sitting near by were all nipping out. The frozen Nets barely posted 30 points in the second half with 6-28 overall from three point range. Missed bombing attempts left and right. Heck, they only needed to hit one or two and we woulda had a chance to cover. The sad thing is that Brooklyn was getting +8 and as horribly as the Nets played down the stretch, they were within 10 or 12 late in the game yet couldn't get that bucket or two to backdoor the cover. We started our NBA evening in the hole 0-1.

OKC kicked ass and won by 21. The Thunder from OKC easily covered against NOLA. Durant/Westbrook combined for 38 points on 15-31 shooting. The Dynamic Duo also combined for 13 assists and 13 rebounds. K-Mart came off the bench and dropped 19 via 6-7 shooting from downtown. With OKC's cover we improved to 1-1.

We added the Memphis Griz shortly before tip off, hoping to grab a better number, but had to settle on +6. So after evoking the wrath of Cobra Commander at NBA HQs, Pop's main goal was to have a rested Spurs team to take on a surging Memphis Griz squad. Even though the Spurs were rested and finally home after a long road trip, we liked Memphis getting points. The Griz led for a while, but the Spurs caught up and the game went into OT. At one point, the Spurs ran off a quick run and were up 8 on OT, which made me sick to my stomach. I had finished work by then and got to sweat the entire OT session via NBA Season Pass (I was rocking the QUAD BOX too). The last 30 seconds of Spurs/Griz was so drawn out with time outs and fouls and commercials that it took like 12 minutes of real life time to play it out. In the end, the Spurs won by 4 but the Griz covered +6.  Wooooooooooooooo! We improved to 2-1 on the night.

It was time to sweat the Mavs against lowly Detroit Piss-Stains. The Mavs were down by 6 at halftime, but when I turned it on mid-way through the 4Q were up by a baker's dozen. The Mavs outscored the Piss-Stains 50-29 in the second half and OJ Mayo dropped 27 proving once again he's the best non-German player on the Mavs. We improved to 3-1 and locked up a guaranteed profit with one more game to go.

It turned out we really didn't need to call in the Wolf, but it was too late because we had already put in an order for Golden State -4 against Indiana. GS was up by 7 at the half and they had a cake walk in the 4Q and easily won by double digits. Golden State came through in the clutch once again. We finished the night 4-1 and I cranked up a little Soul Train, which I do whenever we have a good night.
So much for a less is more mantra, eh? More monkeys on my back. At least these ones were friendly.

We finished a hectic five-game Saturday at 4-1. We're on a 6-2 streak and trying to ride the wave...
NBA Overall: 47-35-3
***

Fun yet hectic yet fun yet weird Saturday because a bunch of friends were in Vegas gambling it up while I got stuck working in Hollyweird. I'm glad a few of them tailed our picks for a profit. I love hearing stories about casual bettors visiting corporate-run Vegas sportsbooks and cashing out after a hit-and-run weekend session.

Anyway, we went 6-2 overall spread out over 3 sports. College football was a deadlock at 1-1, while our selections in both college hoops 1-0 and pro hoops 4-1 made it seem like we were printing money. Yeah, for a brief moment, I felt like one of the lackeys printing money for Ben Bernanke in the basement of the Federal Reserve Bank. Helicopter Ben has bailed out more than his fair share of broke-dick banks, so it was fitting that our mini-heater in the NBA saved us from the malaise of a potential break-even day.

For now, we'll savor the moment and enjoy this victorious night before it's time to get back to work and start from scratch. Sunday is the dawn of a new day.

As Lennon once said... tomorrow never knows.