21 September 2013

NFL Week 3: Fading the Jets and Degen Tales of Ordinary Madness

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

We faded the Jets during last week's shitshow against New England. We're now 2-1 fading the Jets this season after we successfully cashed the NE Pats -550 moneyline. Closer final score than we wanted, considering how much we had to lay, but the Pats' B-Team still defeated the lowly Jets in a futile display of ugliness.
Wisdom of the Ocelot: Thursday Night Football games are lackluster due to reduced prep time and recovery time, so betting UNDERS totally blind is not a bad proposition. 
Fans all over New England have been spoiled the last decade with superior squads, so they were not used to seeing Brady and the Pats struggle in a horrendous and abysmal game. A good friend (and diehard Pats fan) commented on how that was the worst Pats/Jets game he had ever seen. Even when the Jets are bottom feeders of the AFC East, divisional games against the Pats are always hyper-competitive football... except when they play on Thursday... like last week in Week 2 and last year's Thanksgiving horrid trainwreck that was highlighted by the butt fumble.
Sucks for Rex Ryan and company that the Jets couldn't steal a win in that road game. Geno Smith looked like a bumbling rookie with his multiple INTs and the Jets couldn't get much of a run game going. The Jets' "RB by committee" (Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory) combined for 1 TD and 144 yards in 2 games. Powell and Ivory both average 3.0 yards per carry, but they haven't broken any runs for 20+ yards.

The Pats' offense is decimated by injuries and highly vulnerable. They'll be a much better team the next time they meet the Jets, which is why Week 2's loss was a blown opportunity for the Jets to catch the Pats sleeping. Alas, the warm fuzzies are gone. No more undefeated team. The Jets even out at 1-1.

E.J. Manuel out for blood against the Jets
Week 3's match-up is a division game against the Buffalo Bills and their wunderkind QB EJ Manuel. After 2 games Manuel completed 68% of his passes with 3 TDs and only 1 INT. The kid pulled out a 24-23 come-from-behind win out of his arse against the Carolina Collapses.

We're backing Manuel and the Bills this week on the road in the Meadowlands. We were able to grab Buffalo +3 and Buffalo ML +130.
Fade the Jets Pick (2-1 season):
Buffalo ML +130
Buffalo +3
As of Midnight ET on Saturday, you can get Buffalo +2.5 pretty much everywhere in Las Vegas, but there's no consensus online. Depending on the offshore shop, you can find Buffalo +1 (Pinnacle and 5 Dimes), or Buffalo +2.5 (Sportsbook and The Greek), or even Buffalo +3 (Heritage and Bovada).

UPDATE: As of Noon ET on Sunday... looks like consensus in Vegas and online is Buffalo +2.5 (Pinnacle, 5 Dimes, Heritage, and The Greek) with Bovada offering the only +3 out there. Some of the smaller offshore shops still have Buffalo +1.

Notable Dogs - Week 3: Balt +2.5 and St. Louis +4.... Baltimore as a home dog? You betcha. Especially against Houston, who is 1-5 ATS in last 6 games and 0-4 ATS in last 4 road games. We jumped on Baltimore when it went to +2.5. After getting pounded, the line quickly readjusted to Balt  games), so St. Louis (6-1 ATS in last 7 road games) looks enticing, then again, I can't back the Rams, even +4. I'll pass on that one, but it's worth a look if you get a better number.

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