06 October 2013

NFL Week 5: Fade the Jets on MNF and Other Degen Tales of Ordinary Madness

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA


The Jets D took out Tenn's QB Jake Locker and they still lost last Sunday. Why? Geno Smith played like a rookie last Sunday. He's lacking confidence at a time when he should be gaining it. Geno threw 2 INTs and only 1 TD. Sure, Geno spread the ball around, but his favorite target is TE Kellen Winslow and he still continues to struggle trying to link up consistently with Santonio Holmes. On the running side of the ball, the Jets are still below average. Powell had 14 touches for 66 yards. Powell's rush per carry was significantly much better, but he also racked up some yards in garbage time. Bottom line... the Jets are seriously lacking a single rusher than can torch the opposing defense for 100+ yards. Until the Jets can establish a bona fide running attack, Geno Smith will continue to have all the offensive pressure on him.

Atlanta is a team that I haven't liked the last two season. Can you say overrated? Sure, they win (ugly) games but they play down to the level of their opponent. Although Matty Ice is money in home games in Atlanta, I have a feeling that the Falcons might play a stinker on Monday Night Football if they overlook the Jets' defense. Rex Ryan will has his D ready to swarm Matty Ice and do everything possible pull him out of his comfort zone.

Coach Smith needs to get his 2-2 Falcons squad on the right track, which is why he smells a much-desired slump buster. His team is on the cusp of unleashing an old-fashioned ass-kicking on the Jets. Good news for Jets' nation... they get to get embarrassed on national TV!
Fade the Jets (2-3 season):
Atlanta -8.5
For Week 5... I also like three undefeated teams: Seattle, New Orleans, and New England. All three of them happen to be road favorites in tight games. When I put in plays on New England and New Orleans, both were listed as pick'em on Saturday evening. I couldn't pass either up. On Sunday morning, the public has since pushed both over -1 and closer to -1.5 in some spots.

New Orleans is on a mission and Drew Brees looks unstoppable. You just want to get the hell out of the way when a team is super-motivated. In this instance, you have to back Sean Payton's squad on the road even though it appears to be a coinflip on paper.

I like the way new England has played despite their lackluster roster. Somehow, someway both Bill Belicheck and Tom Brady figure out a way to win. They'll do it again.

Seattle's D versus Andree Luck is going to be a hell of a match-up. We'll see if Luck can pull any magic out of his arse. At least he's playing the Seahawks on the road, where they have been vulnerable the last few seasons. But then again, this is a perfect spot to "Fade the Fade." Everyone and their grandmother knows to fade Seattle when they're on the road and back them at home in Seattle. However, this weekend, I'm backing Seattle -1.
Week 5 Picks:
Seattle -1
New Orleans PK
New England PK
I noticed some interesting trends (courtesy of @RJinVegas):

- Dallas is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games.

- NY Giants and Philly are the two teams who have given up the most points. Possibly lean on the OVER 53.5?

- Green Bay is 8-0 ATS after a bye and Detroit is 0-22 SU (or 4-17-1 ATS) at Lambeau Field.
Week 5 - Leans:
Denver -7.5
OVER 53 NYG/PHI
GB -7

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