12 October 2013

NFL Week 6: Fade the Jets, Back the Packers, and Other Degen Tales ofOrdinary Madness

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

Wait, the Jets are 3-2 and have a winning record? Football Outsiders now lists the Jets as a 36% chance of making the playoffs. Seriously? What the hell are those guys smoking?

The Jets are 3-2 and second in the division behind New England (4-1). Are the Jets legit division contenders? Let's not get too ahead of ourselves here.

The Jets won outright last week (and covered the +8.5 spread) after Mike Nugent and his golden foot boosted the Jets to a 31-28 victory by a last-second FG. Atlanta is vastly overrated. I've been saying that the last two seasons. Variance caught up to the Falcons on Monday night when they lost an ugly home game. Geno Smith didn't look like a rube; he played like a seasoned vet with 3 TD and zero INTs. The Jets executed a near flawless offensive scheme. Can they do it again?

Everyone has been talking about how great the Jets defense is, however, they gave up 28 points to the Falcons. Antonio Cromartie has yet to get an interception. To complicate matters, Cromartie hurt his knee. He was listed as questionable, but he insists he's going to play against Pittsburgh.

The Jets take on a Pittsburgh Steelers' team fresh off a bye. Their last gave was an ugly affair against the Minny Vikings in London. Everyone is rested and Mike Tomlin's teams play well after a bye. Do we keep fading the Jets, or is it time to believe in Geno and Rex and start backing them?

Who am I kidding? I have to stop hitting the hash pipe so early in the morning. The Jets will always break your heart. Happens every time. They lure you in with their sob story... the poor old Jets... and just when you begin to feel sorry for them, they do something stupid like give Mark Sanchez a contract extension, or sign Tim Tebow, or trade their best defender, or... get blown out by the Steelers.
Fade the Jets (2-4 season):
Pitt +2.5
In other action for Week 6, I like two games (Green Bay and Cincy) and leaning another (Indy).
NFL Week 6:
Cincy -5.5
Green Bay -1
Leans: OVER 48.5 GB/Balt and Indy -1.5
Cat Teams: I'm jumping on the Buffalo66 bandwagon. He stalked the opening number and snagged it the moment it got released late Sunday. The Bungals take on his lowly Bills... a team with a dinged up QB.

Road Packers: Green Bay is 0-2 on the road this year and they'll be playing without Clay Matthews. So we should just bet Balt +2.5 and take the home dogs, right? Normally, I'd love a sport like this (backing a home dog), but the line is down to +1. Besides, can anyone stop Super-cheese-man? Who needs defense when you have an overwhelming offensive force? Aaron Rodgers is gonna light up Baltimore in a shootout. Take a look at the OVER while you're at it.

Fade Rivers: Okay, San Diego looked good in their victories. But this is the part of the season when Phil Rivers starts to unravel and he won't have Norv Turner to throw under the bus. Andrew Luck will pull off another West Coast road win.

Update:  The Jets are now a pick'em.

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