28 October 2013

The Psychology of 57

By Buffalo66
Buffalo, NY

With the World Series going on right now, it's a perfect time to discuss one of the key aspects of sports betting.  Simply put, what does it take to be a winner?  It's a little more complicated than winning over 50% of your wagers.

Most betting experts claim the highest sustainable win percentage against the spread is 57%.  This is a long term figure.  You may run hotter than that for a whole season, but if you bet any volume this is the ceiling of what you can achieve.

So how do you try and get there?  The same way you try to win a series.  Just get four out of seven.  If you can go 4-3 in every seven ATS bets, you are hitting at 57.14%.

Treat every group of seven wagers as your own personal World Series.  Sometimes you will sweep (or worse, you will get swept). Some will be close.  Just keep a running total of your series wins and losses.  If you are over .500 on your series played, guess what?  You are profitable.

There's an old wives' tale about Joe DiMaggio losing an endorsement with Heinz because his hitting streak ended at 56 games.  He may have lost out on pimping condiments but he ended up selling tons of coffee makers.  My point is that even if you don't hit 57%, if you're close you're still profitable.

I find treating 57% as your personal series a quick and easy way to calculate your profitability.  It's much easier to view sports betting as a 4-3 grind, as opposed to a mountain of rake that's difficult to climb.

No comments: