11 January 2014

NFL Playoffs - Saturday Preview: NO/SEA and IND/NE

By Pauly
New York City

Down to eight teams in the NFL. Seven games left to get your NFL fix. Time to get unstuck or pad your bankroll. Check out Buffalo66's NFL video to see why he likes Indy today.

The Divisional playoffs have arrived. Four teams are bye-rested while the other four have already fought for their lives once... and survived. The dogs prevailed during the Wild Card weekend. Will some of the same dogs get kicked to the curb this week? History suggests a scenario with 3 favorites and 1 dog advancing to NFL's Final Four. Meanwhile, I'm either a mook or a half-baked sage because I sort of like three dogs and Denver.

Saturday's games include a 4:30pm ET game (New Orleans at Seattle) and a primetime ET game (Indy at New England).

New Orleans (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) at Seattle (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)
Open: Seattle -7.5 and 48
Current: -10 and 44

At press time (Saturday morning at 11am ET), tons of money poured it on Seattle. Mostly recreational donks and punters who waited until they woke up on Saturday to call their local bookie. The public still has that Monday Night Football thrashing fresh in their memories when Seattle whipped New Orleans in a 34-7 lopsided victory.

The corporate books in Vegas and offshore shops quickly adjusted the lines after high volume of money flooded Seattle this morning. A few shops posted Seattle -10 before it fell a tick to -9.5. Pro bettors backing Seattle already jumped on them when the line opened, while the few New Orleans backers have been waiting until a moment like this to get maximum points on the Saints.

Everyone in the press had written off New Orleans last weekend against Philly because if you believe MSM hype, then Chip Kelly is the greatest thing in the NFL since cortisone was invented and he has the best imagination in an empty field since C.S. Lewis. Plus, Nick Foles was being dubbed the 'next greatest legendary QB who never played a playoff game'... and although Foles looked good, Philly's D couldn't stop New Orleans in crunch time. Drew Brees took care of business and the Saints ran the ball up Philly's arse to win the game and kick King Kong off their back.

Seattle is 7-1 at home this season including a win against New Orleans, but they are only 4-3 against winning teams. It's going to cold, wet, and loud in Seattle. But will voodoo hokey superstitions cancel out the Seattle's legendary raucous 12th man? Have you seen The Serpent and the Rainbow? All the Phishy "WILSON!" chants in the world can't hold back the omnipotent voodoo underworld.

Tough to blow out the same team twice in a year. I thought -8 was too many points to back Seattle, but double digits? Foolish to back Seattle at this point. You missed the boat. But if line heads back over 10 and closer to 11, you should consider taking a flier on New Orleans.

Sure, math doesn't lie. Neither do the ghosts. The Saints (4-5 on the road) struggle outside the comfy Superdome and can't take that Big Easy voodoo on the road with them. Yet, Sean Payton must've brought a few priestesses to Philly, because Who Dat Saints magically snapped their road losing streak. I have to assume that the harem of witches also made the sojourn to Seattle. Payton holed them up in a no-tell motel on Alaskan Highway, while they spew incantations to dead relatives back in Haiti and methodically place pins into an over-sized Pete Carroll voodoo doll. If Petey Boy woke up with a irritating inflammation in his crotch area, you have to chalk it up to voodoo magic.

Everyone I know is on Seattle. One big dog has to win this weekend; Saints are the best of those teams (Indy, SD, and NOLA). Heck, double digits? I couldn't resist and even took a small position. That makes me an uber-degen or someone who's value shopping.

Disclaimer... I'm holding a couple New Orleans Super Bowl Champion futures tickets. I think they're a team on a mission to win it all as an ultimate fuck you because of Bounty Gate scandal. I hedged when the lines opened and took a small position on the Seattle (via moneyline).

Indy (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) at New England (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS)
Open: NE -7 and 53
Current: -7 and 51

I like a good rant from a spicy Brazilian model. What will Giselle say about the outcome of this game?

"Fucking donks can't catch the fucking ball! No tackling either. Doesn't my Tommy Poo have to do everything? I've seen scrawny dogs in the slums of Rio that have better tackling skills than the Pats secondary."

I smell another shootout for the Colts. A tale of two teams with Swiss Cheese secondaries. Luck is on a roll and facing a dinged up Pats D. Brady does not have FrankenGronk, but he spreads the ball around and will find a way to put up points against the Colts porous' D. So long as there's not Katrina-like winds swirling around Foxboro, this is going to be a shootout. Bombs away.

I don't care about the so-called bad weather. Local meteorologists can't even hit a coinflip to save their lives. You know Billy Belicheat creates his own weather models using a spork and canary. In fact, he sells his research models to the Weather channel after he's done. If the canary takes a dump while lined up to the magnetic North Pole, then Billy B wants to kick into the wind.

Indy got dam lucky last week when KC choked and coughed up a 28-point lead. Why? Andy Reid is a crappy 4Q coach and KC had zero running game. They lost both their starting RB (Jamaal Charles hit the locker room on 6th play of game) and backup RB, so they couldn't eat up the clock in the second half and sit on the lead. Luck pulled a win out of his arse. Can Luck get lucky two weeks in a row? It sounds like a Daft Punk song.

Brady was sacked 40 times this year. Golden Boy is vulnerable. Could be a long day for him, especially if Giselle is pissed off at him and the world after the game. Hell hath no fury than an angry, spicy Brazilian model who buried the Pats and the UNDER.

Whichever gunslinger (Brady/Luck) has the ball last is going to win this game. If it's close, you gotta take the team with points. It's not that I like the Colts as much as I like the number.

Disclaimer... I'm a Jets fan and loathe the Pats, so I'm biased here. Then again, the Pats are no longer dominant... they only covered twice in their last 11 playoff games. Alas, I have a small position on Indy +7.


Don't forget to check out Buffalo66's NFL Divisional Playoffs handicapping video.

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