31 January 2014

Super Bowl Handicapping Video

Buffalo66 took an in depth look at his swing models for the Super Bowl. It's the best offense vs. the best defense.

Super Bowl Pick:
Denver -3

Buffalo66 is also leaning UNDER is the total reaches 50.

Here's what he had to say in his handicapping video...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

30 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/30/14 College Basketball

Buffalo66 took a look at his swing chart and found a few plays of note.

Daily Picks - 1/30/14 College Hoops
Alabama -1.5
Cincy/Louisville OVER 130.5
Providence/Marquette OVER 133.5

Watch Buffalo66's handicapping video here...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

29 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/29/14 College Basketball

Buffalo66 found a couple of games he likes on tonight's schedule...

Daily Picks 1/29/14 - College Hoops:
Memphis -7.5
Memphis/UCF UNDER 149
Northwestern/Wisconsin OVER 123

Watch his handicapping video here:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

28 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/28/14 College Baksetball

Buffalo66 isolated a few plays for tonight.

Daily Picks - 1/28 College Hoops:
West Virginia/Baylor OVER 141.5
Kentucky -4

Watch Buffalo66's handicapping video here:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

27 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/27/14 College Basketball

Limited schedule on the board, but Buffalo66 isolated a single play.

Daily Picks - 1/27/14 College Hoops:
Oklahoma ML

Watch Buffalo66's handicapping video here:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

26 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/26/14 College Basketball

Sunday without football. No worries. Buffalo66 isolated a trio of plays in college hoops.

Daily Picks - 1/26 College Hoops:
USC +6.5
Clemson/UNC OVER 126.5
Utah/Arizona OVER 130.5

Watch the handicapping video by Buffalo66...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

25 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/25/14 College Basketball

Saturday hoops action. Here's a few plays that Buffalo66 isolated...

Daily Picks - 1/25 College Hoops:
Oklahoma ML
Pitt -4.5
Michigan/Michigan St. OVER 138



Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

23 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/23/14 College Basketball

Full slate of college games. Buffalo66 isolated a couple of plays.

Daily Picks - 1/23/14 College Hoops:
Florida -5.5
Illinois/Ohio St. OVER 126.5
Colorado/Arizona OVER 132

Watch the handicapping video for an explanation...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

22 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/22/14 College Basketball

Huge swing in one college hoops game per Buffalo66's model.

Daily Picks - 1/22/14 College Hoops
Mississippi St. +1.5
TCU/Oklahoma UNDER 149.5

Watch handicapping video here for more details:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

21 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/21/14 College Basketball

Lots of college hoops action tonight. Buffalo66 narrowed down three potential plays that includes two totals and Mizzou.

Daily Picks 1/14 - College Hoops:
Missouri +5
Kansas St./Texas OVER 137
Butler/Providence OVER 132

Watch Buff66 break down tonight's picks using his spread model...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts all of his plays, including last minute additions. If you enjoy his daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

20 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/20 College Basketball

Big swings on tonight's college totals. Buffalo66 isolated a pair of games...

Daily Picks 1/20 - College Hoops:
Ohio St./Nebraska OVER 132
Baylor/Kansas OVER 143

For more details, watch the handicapping video by Buffalo66:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts ALL of his plays. If you enjoy these daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

Pissed Off Goalies

Goalies going berserk.


H/T @Deadspin

19 January 2014

NFL Final Four Preview

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

The Final Four of the NFL. Denver, New England, San Francisco and Seattle. No surprises here. Bookies made these teams the Super Bowl favorites over for the last 50 weeks, and the public poured oodles of cash into Denver and Seattle.The public sentiment? Denver vs. Seattle in the Super Bowl. You know what? Both states are legal marijuana states. Cheech and Chong are firing one up just at the thought of that match up.

Me? I'm rooting for a SF/Denver Super Bowl. After all, California is a medicinal marijuana state and the most potent weed on the planet is grown in Northern California.

My plays: I'm fading the public in totals... I like the UNDER 57 in NE/Denver and the OVER 39.5 in SF/Seattle. I tailed Bufalo66's hometeam moneyline parlay, but I like the Niners +4 and Denver -4.5.

If you haven't watched it yet, check out Buffalo66's NFL handicapping video for today's games.

The NFC Championship features San Francisco for a third year in a row (they lost to NY Giants in 2012 but beat Atlanta in 2013), while the AFC Championship was the mouth-watering matchup that TV suits and fans were anticipating... until those pesky Baltimore Ravens threw a monkey wrench into their plans. Baltimore was the hottest team going into last year's playoffs and they ran the table picking off New England, Denver, and eventually San Francisco in Harbaugh Bowl that may or maynot have been rigged by the Illuminati.1


New England (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS) at Denver (14-3 SU and 10-6-1)
Opening Line: Denver -6 and 55
Current Line: Denver -4.5 and 57

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. What more can you ask for than a pair of Hall of Fame QBs slugging it out on a national stage?

Who's better? Brady or Manning? It's a close call. Brady is married to a feisty Brazilian supermodel. Manning had a weed strain named after him2.

These two teams met back in late November. New England won 34-31 in a crazy game of swings. Denver imploded after blowing a 24-0 halftime lead. The game went into overtime and a fortuitous bounce sealed a victory for New England.

Alas, that was the regular season. New England is a rare dog in the playoffs. Denver now has New England on their own turf in Mile High Stadium in the Weedlands. Plus, Julius Thomas did not play in the previous meeting and Peyton will have his favorite TE back in the lineup. New England's D shutdown Indy's deep threat T.Y. Hilton last week, but they'll have their hands full keeping both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas out of the endzone.

New England has the coaching edge. Belichick is one of the greatest second half coaches in the history of sports with the amazing ability to tweak his gameplan at halftime. But he has bad luck against QBs named Manning the last few years. Eli Manning cockblocked Denver's perfect season with a come-from-behind win in Superbowl 42 and Eli did it again in Superbowl 46. New England also struggled to cover in their last dozen playoff games. They are a cringe-worthy 3-9 ATS.

Both squads have shredded Ds, which is why everyone and their grandma is on the OVER. I get squeamish in these spots and try to find a good reason to fade the public. I think I found one. The running game. Whoever wins the Battle of the Trenches will advance to the Super Bowl. Both teams implementing run-heavy game plans favors the UNDER.

New England and Denver are gonna run, run, run, run, and run some more. To keep Denver's potent offense in check, New England wants to move the chains and eat up a ton of clock in order to slow down the game and keep Manning off the field. Belichick knows he cannot win a shootout in Denver, so he welcomes an old-school street fight. SMASHMOUTH FOOTBALL. That makes Blount the X-factor for New England. His name is pronounced BLUNT because the O is silent. Insert your own weed joke here _____.

Denver's X-factor is also their backfield and the dynamic duo of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. Moreno had a resurgence this year, while Montee Ball is searching for redemption after he fumbled late in the New England game, which led to a quick score. New England's front line is Swiss cheese and easily exploitable.

A shootout favors the Broncos, which is why Belichick doesn't want to get in one. New England can win if they run the ball effectively and minimize the amount of time Manning had on the field. This won't exactly be a defensive struggle, but I don't expect 60+ points this game.

Disclaimer... I took a huge position on Denver when line dipped to -4.5, but I also have a small piece of the UNDER 57. Buffalo66 likes both home teams today and his pick is a moneyline parlay on both favorites.

***
BEAST MODE

San Francisco (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS) at Seattle (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS)
Opening Line: Seattle -3.5 and 40
Current Line: Seattle -4 and 40

Niners are on a roll and smack in the middle of an 8-game winning streak. They won their last six road games including playoff games at the Frozen Tundra in Green Bay and last week in Carolina. The Niners are 8-2 as road warriors this year with their only losses at the hexed Superdome in New Orleans and in Seattle's deafening stadium.

71-16. That's a number that keeps  popping up. The Niners have gotten their asses handed to them the last two times they played in Seattle. Sure, the Niners held their serve and won 19-17 at Candlestick but they were outscored by 55 points the last two meetings.

If Seattle wins a third time, I doubt they can maintain that dominant margin.The bookies agree and hung the number somewhere around a field goal. They know their shit. This game will come down to the final possession.

Colin Kaepernick is heating up at the perfect time, while Russell Wilson struggled the last couple of weeks. Wilson does not have to play great to win the game. All he has to do is manage the clock, minimize turnovers and let the Beast and the D and the insane crowd do the rest.

Kaepernick has his favorite target in the lineup. Michael Crabtree's return gives San Francisco a legit deep threat, but he'll be up against one of the toughest secondaries I've ever seen. Plus on offense, Frank Gore will have to bring a sledgehammer with him if he expects to bust through that impenetrable stonewall known as Seattle's D line.

The coaching edge goes to San Francisco. Pete Carroll3 is a great motivator, but his Xs and Os are suspect. Harbaugh is a man on a mission. He's been taking baby steps the last few years... he lost the NFC Championship in 2012, won it in 2013 but lost the Super Bowl to his brother, so the next step is to win the whole fucking thing. His team is peaking at the right time, but he also has his biggest challenge of the season... how the fuck do you win in Seattle?

Simple... win the battle of turnovers.

Seattle has benefited from a ridiculous turnover differential. Their D forces fumbles and INTs, while Wilson/Beastmode don't turn the ball over much. Will variance finally catch up to them? If it does, they'll have a long day ahead of them.

I'm anticipating a turnover heavy game. More scoring than you think, which is contrary to popular belief that this will go under.

Disclaimer... Although Buffalo66 has his home-team moneyline parlay, I couldn't pass up taking a small position with San Francisco +4 this morning after wiseguy money poured in on Seattle. I'm also on the OVER 39.5, which I snagged earlier in the week.

---
FOOTNOTES:
1. I love a good conspiracy theory, but the Illuminati does not run the world. Our true overlords are really Dick Cheney and the Queen of England, who is a Reptilian. Yes, Dicky C and the Lizard Queen. Sounds like a great bar band.

2. The infamous Peyton Manning strain is no longer available in Colorado marijuana dispensaries after a cease and desist order. It's actually a hybrid of Chem 91 (a relative of the infamous ChemDawg) and SVF OG (San Fernando Valley OG Kush).

3. There is a generally consensus that Pete Caroll is a schmuck because of his rah-rah antics on the sidelines. Now, don't get this confused with being an out-right assface like Eric Mangini. Incidentially, both coached the New York Jets.

18 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/18 College Basketball

Full slate of college action today... big swing in the Purdue/Penn State game according to BuffaloHoldem's model.

Daily Picks 1/18 - College Hoops:
UMass -5
Penn St./Purdue UNDER 148
Michigan St./Illinois OVER 131.5

For more details, watch the handicapping video...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts ALL of his plays. If you enjoy these daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

17 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: NFL Conference Championships

We had some tech issues the last few days, but the Buffalo66 handicapping videos are back!

1/19 Daily Picks - NFL:
Parlay: Seattle ML and Denver ML +115

"Seattle doesn't lose at home," said Buff66. More details in his videos...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts ALL of his plays. If you enjoy these daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

14 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/14/14 College Basketball

Buffalo66 breaks down tonight's action that includes a few good matchups including Oklahoma on the road and the OVER in Pitt/GaTech.

1/14/14 Daily Picks - College Hoops:
Oklahoma +5
Pitt/Georgia Tech OVER 132

Watch Buffalo66's handicapping video:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter, where he posts ALL of his plays. If you enjoy these daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

13 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/13/14 College Basketball

Here's my daily handicapping video with today's picks:

Syracuse -9
Kansas/Iowa State OVER 153



I also post plays on my twitter feed @buffaloholdem .


12 January 2014

NFL Playoffs - Sunday Preview: SF/CAR and SD/DEN

By Pauly
New York City

We're down to 6 teams in the NFL playoffs. Yesterday both of the favorites won as Seattle and New England advanced to the next round. Depending on the number you got, Seattle gave up a backdoor cover to New Orleans. Meanwhile, New England pulled away in the 4Q to beat Andrew Luck and the Colts.

Today, there's four teams vying for a shot in their respective conference championships. Both games are re-matches of earlier meetings. San Francisco lost a nut-buster to the Carolina Cams. Meanwhile, the Denver Mannings played one of their worst games of the year when they got ambushed by San Diego on Thursday Night Football. The almighty Ocelot has a gut feeling both losing teams are going to get revenge with playoff wins on Sunday.



San Francisco (13-4 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) at Carolina (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
Open: Carolina -2.5 and 42.5
Current: SF Pick'em and 41

The line opened with Carolina as a small favorite but money poured in on San Francisco and kept coming. Carolina was a home dog for a bit, albeit at +1 or +1.5. The line settled at a pick'em as of publication time (11am ET). The regular season line was SF -6 (in Candlestick) and Carolina won 10-9. It's payback time for the Niners.

Last weekend, the Niners won Ice Bowl II and survived the frozen tundra of Lambeau. Playing in Carolina this weekend compared to Green Bay is like going to the fucking Bahamas. But it's not exactly a holiday atmosphere. The Niners are looking to send Carolina on a quick vacation. Cam is going to sleep with the fishes.

Carolina is 7-1 at home and a stronger squad than Green Bay. On paper it's a pick'em on a neutral court, but the line settles wherever the money sends it. It's going to be one of those smashmouth defensive affairs, but SF has the better running game and a more competent coach. I'd hate to be a Panthers fan (or a bettor clutching a Carolina +1.5 ticket) in crunch time when you know Rivera is going to choke a few chickens and cost his squad the game.

The public is all over the Niners, a covering machine with a 12-2 ATS clip in last 14 games. Plus, the Niners can do it on the road too with a 8-0 streak ATS in last eight away games. Niners are on a rush with seven wins in a row, but this road weary team is playing away from Candlestick Park for the fourth time in five weeks. Michael Crabtree is Kaepernick's go-to guy and he was injured when these teams met earlier in the season. Frank Gore is the man, but he's going to face a stone wall against Carolina's stingy run D. Unless Gore brings out a few sledgehammers, it'll be up to Crabtree to bust some heads.

I smell an UNDER in this game, meanwhile the Denver/SD game will be the shootout.

Disclaimer... I jumped on the early line anticipating a significant influx of action on SF. We're happy we got a good number when Niners were getting points before the line flipped the other way. I can't even pull the trigger on a home dog. No Steve Smith? No thanks. Until Cam Newton proves otherwise, Superman is just a costume he has in the closest but he ain't going anywhere because his coach wears Kryptonite cufflinks.



San Diego (10-7 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) at Denver (13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)
Open: Denver -10 and 55.5
Current: -8 and 54

Everyone and their mother is betting San Diego. Sharps, squares, pros, amateurs. The line bottomed out at -8 on Sunday morning. I know Buffalo66 liked Denver when the lines opened at -10 and he doubled down yesterday. At -8, it's hard not to back Denver. I don't care where the money is coming from. Denver is gonna open up a six-pack of whoop ass on San Diego.

Denver is 7-1 at home in Mile (Legal) High Stadium with Denver Mannings only loss against San Diego. In that ugly loss, Peyton Manning struggled in a short week. He had the sniffles and a bum ankle. Peyton was visibly hobbled, but doesn't like pain pills from Big Pharma. He's all natural... only cheetah growth hormones.

Peyton Manning lost his last three playoff games. GASP! Peyton needs a playoff win faster than Kim Kardashian needs a chocolate-covered salami rammed up her bum.

SD was damn lucky to sneak in the backdoor to the playoffs dance, then they picked off an overrated Bungles team with a Ginger QB.
Wisdom of the Ocelot

STOP betting on ginger QBs.
No gingers in this race. Sure, SD fares well against good teams (7-2 overall and 4-0 on the road), but Phil Rivers is a mook. He thinks he's on a mission from God or something. Did you see his rock-tie he had on in his post-game interview? Cowboys visiting Vegas wear shit like that rock-tie at the poker tables. We call them: Dead Money.

Peyton Manning has two words for Rivers: "JV is out back, son!"

I know that's five words, but Peyton waved me off and called an audible.

"Denver won't lose two in a row at home to San Diego," said Buff66 in his handicapping video. I'm with him.
 
Disclaimer... Denver has legal marijuana and I'm high right now while writing this. Glad I was able to pick up -8 this morning.

***

Don't forget to watch Buffalo66's handicapping video for today's NFL playoff action.

11 January 2014

NFL Playoffs - Saturday Preview: NO/SEA and IND/NE

By Pauly
New York City

Down to eight teams in the NFL. Seven games left to get your NFL fix. Time to get unstuck or pad your bankroll. Check out Buffalo66's NFL video to see why he likes Indy today.

The Divisional playoffs have arrived. Four teams are bye-rested while the other four have already fought for their lives once... and survived. The dogs prevailed during the Wild Card weekend. Will some of the same dogs get kicked to the curb this week? History suggests a scenario with 3 favorites and 1 dog advancing to NFL's Final Four. Meanwhile, I'm either a mook or a half-baked sage because I sort of like three dogs and Denver.

Saturday's games include a 4:30pm ET game (New Orleans at Seattle) and a primetime ET game (Indy at New England).


New Orleans (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) at Seattle (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)
Open: Seattle -7.5 and 48
Current: -10 and 44

At press time (Saturday morning at 11am ET), tons of money poured it on Seattle. Mostly recreational donks and punters who waited until they woke up on Saturday to call their local bookie. The public still has that Monday Night Football thrashing fresh in their memories when Seattle whipped New Orleans in a 34-7 lopsided victory.

The corporate books in Vegas and offshore shops quickly adjusted the lines after high volume of money flooded Seattle this morning. A few shops posted Seattle -10 before it fell a tick to -9.5. Pro bettors backing Seattle already jumped on them when the line opened, while the few New Orleans backers have been waiting until a moment like this to get maximum points on the Saints.

Everyone in the press had written off New Orleans last weekend against Philly because if you believe MSM hype, then Chip Kelly is the greatest thing in the NFL since cortisone was invented and he has the best imagination in an empty field since C.S. Lewis. Plus, Nick Foles was being dubbed the 'next greatest legendary QB who never played a playoff game'... and although Foles looked good, Philly's D couldn't stop New Orleans in crunch time. Drew Brees took care of business and the Saints ran the ball up Philly's arse to win the game and kick King Kong off their back.

Seattle is 7-1 at home this season including a win against New Orleans, but they are only 4-3 against winning teams. It's going to cold, wet, and loud in Seattle. But will voodoo hokey superstitions cancel out the Seattle's legendary raucous 12th man? Have you seen The Serpent and the Rainbow? All the Phishy "WILSON!" chants in the world can't hold back the omnipotent voodoo underworld.

Tough to blow out the same team twice in a year. I thought -8 was too many points to back Seattle, but double digits? Foolish to back Seattle at this point. You missed the boat. But if line heads back over 10 and closer to 11, you should consider taking a flier on New Orleans.

Sure, math doesn't lie. Neither do the ghosts. The Saints (4-5 on the road) struggle outside the comfy Superdome and can't take that Big Easy voodoo on the road with them. Yet, Sean Payton must've brought a few priestesses to Philly, because Who Dat Saints magically snapped their road losing streak. I have to assume that the harem of witches also made the sojourn to Seattle. Payton holed them up in a no-tell motel on Alaskan Highway, while they spew incantations to dead relatives back in Haiti and methodically place pins into an over-sized Pete Carroll voodoo doll. If Petey Boy woke up with a irritating inflammation in his crotch area, you have to chalk it up to voodoo magic.

Everyone I know is on Seattle. One big dog has to win this weekend; Saints are the best of those teams (Indy, SD, and NOLA). Heck, double digits? I couldn't resist and even took a small position. That makes me an uber-degen or someone who's value shopping.

Disclaimer... I'm holding a couple New Orleans Super Bowl Champion futures tickets. I think they're a team on a mission to win it all as an ultimate fuck you because of Bounty Gate scandal. I hedged when the lines opened and took a small position on the Seattle (via moneyline).



Indy (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) at New England (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS)
Open: NE -7 and 53
Current: -7 and 51

I like a good rant from a spicy Brazilian model. What will Giselle say about the outcome of this game?

"Fucking donks can't catch the fucking ball! No tackling either. Doesn't my Tommy Poo have to do everything? I've seen scrawny dogs in the slums of Rio that have better tackling skills than the Pats secondary."

I smell another shootout for the Colts. A tale of two teams with Swiss Cheese secondaries. Luck is on a roll and facing a dinged up Pats D. Brady does not have FrankenGronk, but he spreads the ball around and will find a way to put up points against the Colts porous' D. So long as there's not Katrina-like winds swirling around Foxboro, this is going to be a shootout. Bombs away.

I don't care about the so-called bad weather. Local meteorologists can't even hit a coinflip to save their lives. You know Billy Belicheat creates his own weather models using a spork and canary. In fact, he sells his research models to the Weather channel after he's done. If the canary takes a dump while lined up to the magnetic North Pole, then Billy B wants to kick into the wind.

Indy got dam lucky last week when KC choked and coughed up a 28-point lead. Why? Andy Reid is a crappy 4Q coach and KC had zero running game. They lost both their starting RB (Jamaal Charles hit the locker room on 6th play of game) and backup RB, so they couldn't eat up the clock in the second half and sit on the lead. Luck pulled a win out of his arse. Can Luck get lucky two weeks in a row? It sounds like a Daft Punk song.

Brady was sacked 40 times this year. Golden Boy is vulnerable. Could be a long day for him, especially if Giselle is pissed off at him and the world after the game. Hell hath no fury than an angry, spicy Brazilian model who buried the Pats and the UNDER.

Whichever gunslinger (Brady/Luck) has the ball last is going to win this game. If it's close, you gotta take the team with points. It's not that I like the Colts as much as I like the number.

Disclaimer... I'm a Jets fan and loathe the Pats, so I'm biased here. Then again, the Pats are no longer dominant... they only covered twice in their last 11 playoff games. Alas, I have a small position on Indy +7.

***

Don't forget to check out Buffalo66's NFL Divisional Playoffs handicapping video.

10 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: NFL Divisional Playoffs 1/11 and 1/12

Buffalo66 breaks down the NFL Divisional playoffs for both Saturday and Sunday games. As of Friday afternoon, he only likes two specific plays...

NFL Playoffs:
Indy +6
Denver -10

More specifics in the video:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter. If you enjoy these daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

09 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/9/14 College Basketball

Buffalo66 takes a look at tonight's slate of college hoops action with a thorough breakdown of Memphis/Louisville.

1/9/14 Daily Picks - College Hoops:
Memphis +10
Zags -9

For more details, watch Buffalo's daily handicapping video:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter. If you enjoy these daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

08 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/8/14 College Basketball

Buffalo66 returns with another handicapping video breaking down tonight's full slate of college hoops games. He went 2-0 last night. Tonight's action... Buffalo66 likes Nova, Georgetown, Arkansas, and he's also on a moneyline parlay (Arkansas/Georgetown).

Details here:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter. If you enjoy these daily handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe via YouTube.

07 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/7/14 College Hoops

A bunch of college hoops action tonight and Buffalo66 likes Charleston and Vanderbilt. More details are in his handicapping video here:


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter. Also... if you dig his handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe here.

06 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/6/14 BCS College Football

The night you've been waiting for! It's the BCS Championship.... finally. Auburn is now a 10-point dog against Florida State, which opened at -7.5. Buffalo6 has a few things to say about the game.

Watch here...


Follow @BuffaloHoldem on Twitter. Also... if you dig his handicapping videos, be sure to subscribe here.

05 January 2014

Sunday Wild Card Preview: SD/CIN and SF/GB

By Pauly
New York City

Saturday's Wild Card games are in the books. Both Indy and New Orleans advanced to the next round. Indy had an unbelievable comeback after KC choked and blew a 4-touchdown lead. But Andrew Luck shrugged off a couple of bad passes to secure his first-ever playoff win. Both Saturday games were squeakers decided by two or fewer points, so whatever number you got was crucial. I'm lucky we secured KC +2.5 when the lines opened. Although we won a small wager on the Saints, we fell short on the OVER on Philly/NO. When both teams fail to score in the first quarter, you're doomed to miss your OVER.

Sunday's action includes two games featuring a potential Ice Bowl 2.0 in Green Bay where Arctic temperatures were expected to be worse than the original Ice Bowl.

Don't forget to check out Buffalo66's Wild Card handicapping video he posted yesterday that included his thoughts on both of today's games. FYI... Buff66 likes the GB moneyline.

SUNDAY WILD CARD GAMES

Fear the Ginger
San Diego (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)
Opening line: Cincy -7.5 and 46
Current line: -7 and 46

San Diego backdoored the playoffs. They're damn lucky to be still playing. Is a token postseason berth enough for them, and will they roll over and die? Or will they try to put a monkeywrench in Cincy's postseason hopes?

Cincy drew a tough draw the last two postseasons with road games in Houston (and Andy Dalton played like crap with zero TDs and 4 INTs). This year, they have the benefit of hosting a playoff game at home, a comfortable place where they went 8-0 this year. Everyone talks about how tough it is to win in Seattle or New Orleans, but the Bengals' den is vastly overlooked.

San Diego is a strange team because they won games you didn't expect them to win, but looked meh against terrible teams. San Diego will try to steal a win in a shootout against a gritty Cincy D that is much better than you think. They'll have their hands full with Phil Rivers and his new favorite toy Keenan Allen. SD's offense eats up a lot of clock and they are successful at extending drives (they are one of the best teams in the NFL at converting third downs into first downs). SD beat Peyton Manning and Denver by keeping the ball out of Manning's hands, while Rivers and the offense kept moving the chains.

I like Cincy to advance but can they cover such a high number? The San Diego Super-Chargers are a team that can generate a significant amount of points, plus they're getting almost a TD. That's hard to pass up. The contrarian in me wants to take SD with the points, but they'll have to head into the jungle and beat Cincy on their own turf.

I'm wary to back west coast teams playing an early east coast game, especially so late in the season. Plus you have a warm weather team playing under frigid conditions. In the end, it's all up to Rivers. He's always been a hothead. If he gets fired up and comes to play, then it's going to be a long day for Cincy's secondary. But if Rivers gets out of sync early on, then he tends to give up. Then again, this is the postseason so you expect Rivers to bring his A-game to southern Ohio.

Cincy's D is too tough and Andy Dalton has too many weapons at his disposal. Can anyone on San Diego stop AJ Green? If this game was in San Diego, I'd be all over the over. Since it's in Cincy, I'm staying away from the total. This game has the potential to be a blowout... in favor of Cincy.

Disclaimer...when the line moved to -6.5, I took a small position. But I really don't like laying so many points. I'm considering a teaser with Cincy and SF.


Superman?
San Francisco (12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS) at Green Bay (8-7-1, 7-9 ATS)
Opening line: SF -2.5 and 49
Current line: -2.5 and 45.5

Welcome to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. It's so fucking cold in Wisconsin that even Green Bay lifelong season ticket holders are staying home to watch the game in the comfy confines of their heated homes and local pubs. I don't blame them, but the show must go on. How cold is it going to be by game time? Temperatures are predicted to bottom out somewhere around Ice Bowl levels (game time temp was -13), not including wind chill.

Historically it's tough to beat the Packers at home in January in Arctic-like conditions, then again, if you're familiar with Mark Twain, he summed up the weather in the Bay Area the best... "The coldest winter I ever spent was the summer in San Francisco."  Mark Twain never really said that, but he's become synonymous with that quote so we'll just let it stand. It's myth accepted as fact like the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field. Yeah, I said it... cold weather is overrated. But both teams have to play under these not-so-optimal conditions. Let's not overlook the swirling winds at Candlestick Park outside SF. Kaepernick and the Niners have no choice but to face the tempestuous and constantly changing Bay Area weather, so they should have no problems conquering the frigid temps.

Aaron Rodgers is not 100% and still banged up. He's one hit away from ending Green Bay's postseason hopes. I doubt that the Mighty Flynn can take the Packers to the promised land, so expect the Niners' swarming D to do everything possible to rattle Rodgers' bones.

On paper, this game looks like it could be a shootout because both teams have sketchy pass defenses. Green Bay's D has more holes than Swiss Cheese, and don't get me started about the Niners' problems.

The Niners secret weapon is not-so-secret. His name is Frank Gore and he's a workhorse. Expect Gore and the rest of the RB corp to have a field day against Green Bay's porous run D with some classic smashmouth football.

The Packers would love a shootout. Rodgers is the more accurate gunslinger and has a far superior arm than Kaepernick, who has been erratic at times. Then again, you never know when Kaepernick is going to light it up... either on the ground or in the air.

Disclaimer... I took a small position on SF earlier in the week. I know Buffalo66 likes the OVER and the GB moneyline, but I cannot ignore Harbaugh on a mission to return to the Super Bowl. The Niners feel as though they got robbed last year and they want revenge, plus the Niners know how to beat the Packers, something they did three times in the last two seasons.

04 January 2014

Daily Picks and Handicapping Video: 1/4/14 and 1/5/14 NFL Wild Card

Buffalo66 tackles both Saturday and Sunday NFL Wild Card games. On Saturday, he's liking the OVER in PHI/NO. On Sunday, he's going with a moneyline bet on Green Bay and a potential play on the SF/GB OVER.

More details here:


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Saturday Wild Card Preview: KC/IND and NO/PHI

By Pauly
New York City

The real football season finally begins after 17 weeks of foreplay and fans praying to the football gods that their QBs and stars fade injuries during 16 regular season games and unnecessary Thursday night shitshows. At the start of the postseason, everyone is banged up, but ready to bust some skulls. It's the NFL playoffs... the greatest show on Earth. With the exception of March Madness, this is my favorite postseason.

There are two Wild card games on Saturday and two more on Sunday. If you haven't seen it yet, check out Buffalo66's take on all four games in his video handicapping series.

SATURDAY NFL WILD CARD GAMES

 
Kicker Ryan Succop is the X-factor
Kansas City (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) at Indianapolis (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS)
Opening line: Indy -2.5 and 46.5
Current line: Indy +1.5 and 46

Talk about a loose line. In six days, the Indy Colts went from a -2.5 favorite to a +1.5 home dog. Just last night, the line had settled on a pick'em, but barrels and oodles of money keep coming in on KC from both wiseguys, sharps, and the public. The line is KC -2.5 at some shops!

The good news is if you liked Indy, you're now getting points. If you like KC, then you snoozed on getting the best number. Disclaimer... I bet the opening number at KC +2.5, but I might pull trigger on Indy of the line jumps to +3.

KC struggled in the last few weeks of the season and Indy whooped them a few weeks ago, yet everyone and their grandma is on KC. Why? Because everyone suspects Andy Reid is pulling a rope-a-dope or playing possum because he rested key guys down the stretch and might have installed a fugazzi game plan in order to not tip their hand in an inevitable matchup against Indy. Then again, KC looked bloody awful in that slippery slopfest with six fumbles (KC finished with a -4 turnover differential). Don't forget that plethora of missed tackles. The way KC's defense played, it seemed like Colts players were covered in lube.

Indy is a team that caused bettors and fans headaches due to their inconsistency for the first 2/3 of the season. They consistently played to the level of their opponent, looking like crap against inferior teams yet appearing superior against great teams. But unlike KC, Indy is peaking at the right time and finished the season on a strong note. Plus, Andrew Luck is 12-4 ATS at home. When Indy wins at home... they win big. But most importantly, Luck is 6-0 ATS as a home dog. In the last two seasons, when no one thinks they can win at home, Luck and the Colts exceed expectations.

Hard to ignore a home dog in the playoffs, but I already committed to KC +2.5. Hell hath no fury than a QB (Alex Smith) with a chip on their shoulder. And nothing is more dangerous than a well-rested and hungry running back in Jamaal Charles. KC will be looking to feed their version of the beast.

Indy wins a shootout, but KC wins a street brawl. The team who can dictate the pace will win the game, but you know KC is going to look to run the ball up Indy's ass. Meanwhile, there's no way KC's defense will look as bad as they did in their loss to Indy.

Here's a strong argument for Indy based on kicking. Yes, kicking. Buffalo66 equates the importance of FG kicking to free throw shooting. KC's Ryan Succop has been suspect and KC's kickers have historically been jinxed in the postseason. Since 1970, KC kickers have floudered in the playoffs missing 13 of 25 FG attempts.Yikes.

KC was a scoring machine this year and had fewer FG chances than Indy (they connected on 22 FGs vs. Indy's 35) but Indy nailed 87.5% of their regular season FG attempts versus KC's 76%. That number bothers me. KC is only 1 of 4 from long distance (50+), versus 4 out of 6 for Indy. The bookies think this game will be settled by a FG and it's pretty obvious that Indy has the better kicker with longer range. If Succop struggles, KC might be in deep trouble.
 
If you like KC, it's too late to back them now that they're giving points. If you dig Indy, grab the line ASAP before late Indy money moves the line back the other way.


Brees vs. Foles in an old-fashioned shootout
 New Orleans (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) at Philadelphia (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS)
Opening line: Philly -2.5 and 55
Current line:  Philly -3 and 53.5

We've seen this story before. A pair of Texas gunslingers meeting at high noon. Whoever is more accurate wins. The loser? Dies a brutal death in the middle of the street.

Nick Foles broke Drew Brees' records at Westlake High in Austin, Texas. Two renown Texas highschool superstars enter the Octogon on Saturday night, but only one pro QB will survive. Brees has the edge just because of experience, but then again he has a huge monkey on his back the size of King Kong. New Orleans struggles on the road and if they want to win the Super Bowl, they have to win not one, but three road games.

Everyone and their deaf grandma knows about the Saints' road woes. The Saints are 3-5 on the road and only score 17.8 points in those games compared to a stunning 8-0 record inside the Superdome where they generate 34 points per game. The Superdome is hexed. Visiting teams can't handle the juju and voodoo nether-world mysticism. But those hokey superstitions don't work on the road.

Turn talk radio or listen to the static coming out of the mouths from the talking heads on TV. They're all saying the same thing... that New Orleans is a dome team and they can't win on the road. The Saints are supposed to lose this game on paper, so why even play the game? Just give Philly the victory and move on, right? But talk is cheap. Paper is supposed to be used to roll spliffs or wipe your bum. In the real world, there's lots of other shit that you cannot control. Like how badly Sean Payton and Drew Brees want to give the NFL the big, fat middle finger, and the fact that Foles looked a little skiddish late in the game against Dallas last week.

Can Brees win a shootout on the road? Unless the Saints' D figured out a way to stop either the league's best passing game or the league's best running game, then the Saints' offense needs to generate at least six TDs to win this game. That doesn't seem impossible when you have Jimmy Graham. Who the hell is going to guard him? Philly's run D has vastly improved, but their secondary is porous and their pass D ranks among the worst in the league. This is the same team that made Matt Cassell look like Joe Montana the other week when a Vikings squad (sans Adrian Peterson) gave them an ass-whooping

Nick Foles emerged as the real deal (Michael Vick, who?), but Foles' ridiculous TD-INT ratio will eventually come back down to Earth. Will it happen this week against a Saints' defense has been inconsistent? Rob Ryan will throw everything including the kitchen sink at Foles to try to get him out of sync, but if the Saints are not careful, Foles will light them up.

Playoff games often play out the exact opposite as you expect, so if you follow that way of thinking, this should be a 17-13 street fight. Yet I have a gut feeling it's going to be a 43-37 final score. Both Foles and McCoy are going to rack up yardage. Since Philly plays so fast, Drew Brees will get plenty of chances to launch an aerial counter-attack.

Yes, I smell an old-fashioned shootout which is why I'm on the OVER at 53.

Can Brees win a shootout on the road? Drew Brees has an outdoor passer rating under 90, which makes him somewhat human. Who cares. I'm just banking on points. A shit-ton. Foles and the Eagles have home court advantage, but how good is that when your team is only .500 at home? The media and public are overemphasizing the Saints inability to win on the road, but then again, the Eagles are beatable in Philly. It's not like the Saints are flying into Seattle this weekend. Besides, Philly's strength of schedule was suspect and their division was one of the weakest in all of football.

Disclaimer... I'm holding a Saints Superbowl futures ticket, so I should fade them in this game as a hedge. I've been debating whether or not I should take Philly -2.5 as a hedge, but I'm definitely on the OVER.

Then again, I like fading the public in certain spots because that's where the moolah is... where the public is not. Everyone is well aware that the Saints can't win on the road, so perhaps it's time to fade both history and the herd?

Daily Picks Video: 1/4/14 College Basketball

Full slate on college hoops games. Buffalo66 shares his thoughts on some of his favorites like a pair of dogs UW +17 and Georgia Tech +8, not to mention Duke, Iowa State and UCONN.


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03 January 2014

Daily Picks Video: 1/3/14 College Football Bowls

Buffalo66 shares his thoughts on today's college football bowl action. He particularly likes Ohio State.

Watch here for details and specifics in Buffalo66's latest handicapping video:


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02 January 2014

Handicapping Video and Daily Picks: 1/2/14 College Basketball

Buffalo66 explains a little college hoops action with conference play in the Big Ten (Wisconsin) and a pair of west coast games (Pacific and Pepperdine)...



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01 January 2014

Handicapping Videos: 1/1/14 College Football Bowls

Remember when they used to play all the bowl games on New Year's Day?

Buffalo66 shares his thoughts on today's bowl card especially on Nebraska/Georgia total and Michigan St...


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